Hexing(603556) 国金证券·2025-03-18 06:36Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 58.0 CNY per share based on a 21x PE valuation for 2025, projecting a market value of 28.3 billion CNY [4]. Core Insights - The company has over 30 years of experience in the overseas smart meter market and has expanded into distribution and renewable energy sectors since 2015. Currently, overseas revenue accounts for over 60% of total revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 18% in the first half of 2024 [1][24]. - The global smart meter market is expected to grow from 17.6 billion USD in 2024 to 37.2 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 9.8%. The demand for smart meters is driven by the long-term trend of grid modernization and renewable energy construction [2][49]. - The company is well-positioned in the market with 14 factories globally and exports to over 100 countries, anticipating a CAGR of nearly 15% in overseas electricity business revenue from 2024 to 2026 [1][4]. Summary by Sections Company Fundamentals - The company is a leading exporter of smart meters in China, focusing on overseas markets and expanding into distribution and renewable energy sectors. Its main business segments include smart electricity products and systems (86%), smart distribution products and systems (10%), and renewable energy products (4%) [15][16][18]. Overseas Market - The global smart meter market is projected to grow significantly, with emerging markets in Latin America, Africa, and Asia showing substantial growth potential. The company has a strong competitive advantage in overseas markets due to its early market entry and extensive channel resources [1][2][43]. - The company has established a strategic partnership with KERUN Intelligent Control to enhance its distribution capabilities in the overseas market [1]. Domestic Market - The domestic smart meter market is expected to grow, driven by strong demand for replacement and upgrades. The company is positioned as a top supplier, with stable market share and expected revenue growth of nearly 20% from 2024 to 2026 [3][4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.14 billion CNY, 1.35 billion CNY, and 1.62 billion CNY for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16%, 19%, and 20% [4][7].