BABA(09988) 东方证券·2025-03-15 15:05Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [2][9]. Core Views - The company has a clear strategy focusing on AI and cloud integration, with the split of the Intelligent Information Business Group marking an increase in AI ToC applications. Revenue projections for FY2025-2027 are estimated at 10046 billion, 11230 billion, and 12545 billion yuan, with adjusted net profits of 1577 billion, 1656 billion, and 1863 billion yuan respectively. The estimated market value of the company is 30703 billion yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 175.10 HKD [2][9]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for FY2023 was 868,687 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.83%. Projections for FY2024 and FY2025 are 941,168 million yuan (8.34% growth) and 1,004,569 million yuan (6.74% growth) respectively. The adjusted net profit for FY2023 was 72,509 million yuan, with a projected increase to 79,741 million yuan in FY2024 and 132,264 million yuan in FY2025, reflecting a significant growth rate of 65.87% [7][15]. AI Application Development - Alibaba has launched its flagship AI application, New Quark, which integrates multiple AI functionalities and aims to transition from a cloud storage and search engine to an AI agent. The application is expected to leverage the high traffic from its existing services and the company's leading AI foundational capabilities [5][9]. - The report highlights that New Quark has achieved a daily active user (DAU) count of 34.3 million, making it the top AI application, with over 200 million total users, predominantly from the post-00s demographic [5][9]. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Alibaba is positioned as a leader in the current AI wave, benefiting from increased demand for cloud computing power driven by AI applications. The company’s strong AI research capabilities, exemplified by its proprietary Qwen deep reasoning model, are expected to enhance its competitive edge [5][9]. - The report notes that the recent launch of the general AI agent product Manus marks a significant step in the evolution of C-end AI applications, with Alibaba's New Quark poised to capitalize on this trend [5][9].