LI AUTO-W(HK:02015) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-15 13:56Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 113.20 HKD per share [2][8]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve stable revenue growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 144.46 billion RMB, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.6% [1][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 is forecasted to be 8.03 billion RMB, a decrease of 32.0% year-on-year [1][10]. - The company is focusing on electric vehicles and intelligent driving technology, with new models set to launch in 2025 [7][8]. Revenue Summary - In Q4 2024, total revenue reached 44.27 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 6.1% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 3.3% [1][2]. - The automotive business revenue for Q4 2024 was approximately 42.64 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 5.6% [2][3]. - The average selling price (ASP) decreased slightly from 270,000 RMB in Q3 2024 to 269,000 RMB in Q4 2024 [2]. Profitability Summary - The gross profit for the automotive business in Q4 2024 was 8.39 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 19.7%, down 3.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Operating profit for Q4 2024 was 3.70 billion RMB, with an operating margin of 8.4% [3]. - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 2024 was 4.03 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [3]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company reported a net cash inflow from operating activities of 8.7 billion RMB in Q4 2024, with free cash flow of 6.1 billion RMB [6]. - As of March 11, 2025, the company has established a robust charging network with 1,900 supercharging stations and 10,160 charging piles across 31 provinces and 214 cities [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates Q1 2025 vehicle deliveries to be between 88,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.5% to 15.7% [6]. - Revenue for 2025 is projected to be between 234 billion RMB and 247 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decline of 8.7% to 3.5% [6][10]. - The company plans to launch new electric models, which are expected to drive sales growth [7][8].