LI AUTO-W(HK:02015) SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-03-15 07:22Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's Q4 performance met expectations with a delivery of 159,000 units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8% [1] - The revenue for Q4 was 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year and 3.3% quarter-on-quarter, with the automotive business contributing 42.64 billion yuan [1] - The company expects a delivery of 88,000 to 93,000 units in Q1 2025, which represents a year-on-year increase of 9.5% to 15.7% [3] - The company is facing short-term pressure in 2025 due to increased competition in the extended-range vehicle segment, particularly from the AITO M8 model [3] - The company has strong product development capabilities and strategic management, which are expected to support long-term growth despite short-term challenges [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Sales - Q4 sales reached 159,000 units, with a breakdown of models sold: L6 (78,000), L7 (36,000), L8 (21,000), L9 (20,000), and M (3,000) [1] - The average selling price (ASP) for Q4 was 269,000 yuan, down 12.3% year-on-year [1] - For the full year 2024, total sales were 500,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 33.6%, with total revenue of 144.46 billion yuan, up 16.6% year-on-year [1] Costs and Expenses - R&D and SGA expenses for Q4 were 2.41 billion and 3.08 billion yuan, respectively, with a decreasing expense ratio [1] - The gross margin for Q3 was 20.3%, with a slight decline attributed to one-time settlements with suppliers [2] Profitability - Non-GAAP net profit for Q4 was 4.04 billion yuan, down 12% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 9.1% [2] - The company expects net profits of 12.49 billion, 17.32 billion, and 24.58 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19.2, 13.8, and 9.8 [4] Market Outlook - The company is entering a high-pressure period for new electric vehicle launches in 2025-2026, with a focus on the upcoming i8 and i6 models [4] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with market demand not meeting expectations [5]