宁德时代（300750）：业绩符合预期，盈利维持韧性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's performance in 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 362 billion RMB, a decrease of 10% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 15% to 50.7 billion RMB [1] - The company continues to experience high demand growth, with Q4 2024 battery shipments reaching 474 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 22% [2] - The company is focused on high R&D investment and innovation, with new products like the Shenxing supercharging battery and the Tianxing heavy-duty commercial vehicle battery being introduced [3] - The company is expected to benefit from the current industry replenishment cycle and overseas capital expansion, with projected revenues of 700 billion RMB in 2025 and 840 billion RMB in 2026 [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In Q4 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1,030 billion RMB, a decrease of 3% year-on-year, and a net profit of 14.7 billion RMB, with a year-on-year increase of 14% [1][2] - The company's gross margin in Q4 was impacted by a 11.5 percentage point decrease due to a concentrated warranty reserve adjustment [2] Demand and Supply Analysis - The company expects the proportion of high-end products like Shenxing and Qilin batteries to increase from 30-40% in 2024 to 60-70% in 2025 [2] - Battery prices remained stable at 0.60-0.65 RMB/Wh in Q4, with a year-on-year decrease of nearly 17% due to lower raw material prices [2] Research and Development - The company is significantly investing in R&D, with a focus on smart and electric solutions, including the development of mechanical arms and AGVs for battery manufacturing [3] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 458.1 billion RMB in 2025 and 538.3 billion RMB in 2026, with corresponding net profits of 70 billion RMB and 83.9 billion RMB [4][7]