YILI(600887) 国泰君安·2025-03-19 09:14Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yili Co., Ltd. is "Accumulate" with a target price of 35.00 RMB, up from the previous forecast of 33.53 RMB [2][13]. Core Views - The dairy industry is expected to reach a turning point in 2025, benefiting leading companies like Yili to increase market share. The company is projected to experience healthy growth in liquid milk, with other business segments contributing to revenue growth. Profit elasticity is anticipated to be released following a reduction in impairments, and policy-driven improvements in liquid milk market conditions are expected to act as a catalyst [3][13]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: - 2022A: 123,171 million RMB - 2023A: 126,179 million RMB - 2024E: 120,414 million RMB - 2025E: 124,520 million RMB - 2026E: 132,564 million RMB - Revenue growth rates: 11.4% (2022A), 2.4% (2023A), -4.6% (2024E), 3.4% (2025E), 6.5% (2026E) [4]. - Net Profit (Attributable to Parent): - 2022A: 9,431 million RMB - 2023A: 10,429 million RMB - 2024E: 11,826 million RMB - 2025E: 11,099 million RMB - 2026E: 12,499 million RMB - Net profit growth rates: 8.3% (2022A), 10.6% (2023A), 13.4% (2024E), -6.1% (2025E), 12.6% (2026E) [4]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): - 2022A: 1.48 RMB - 2023A: 1.64 RMB - 2024E: 1.86 RMB - 2025E: 1.74 RMB - 2026E: 1.96 RMB [4]. - Return on Equity (ROE): - 2022A: 18.8% - 2023A: 19.5% - 2024E: 21.0% - 2025E: 19.0% - 2026E: 20.6% [4]. Market Data - Current Price: 29.75 RMB - Market Capitalization: 189,386 million RMB - 52-week Price Range: 21.37 - 30.23 RMB [5]. Industry Outlook - The dairy industry is expected to face challenges in 2024 due to oversupply, weak demand, and high inventory levels, leading to a decline in fresh milk prices. However, the report suggests that the worst phase for the industry has passed, with expectations for stabilization in milk prices by Q3 2025, which could improve the competitive landscape [13]. - Yili is expected to achieve healthy growth in liquid milk and other segments, with infant formula benefiting from a slight rebound in birth rates and adult formula focusing on functional product development [13]. - The report emphasizes that cost reductions and lower impairment losses are expected to enhance profit elasticity, with a maintained target net profit margin of 9% for 2025 [13].