Nvidia(US:NVDA) Guoyuan Securities·2025-03-17 01:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the semiconductor and semiconductor production equipment industry [7]. Core Insights - The overseas AI chip index increased by 4.3% this week, driven by significant revenue growth from TSMC and ongoing infrastructure expansion by AI companies. Nvidia's upcoming GTC conference is expected to further boost market sentiment [1][9]. - The domestic AI chip index fell by 2.2%, with major players like SMIC and Zhaoyi Innovation experiencing declines of over 5% and 3%, respectively [1][9]. - The report highlights a mixed performance in the semiconductor sector, with power semiconductor and storage chip indices declining by 0.4% and 2.2%, respectively, indicating a sluggish market [1][9]. Market Index Summary - The overseas AI chip index saw a recovery this week, rebounding from a previous decline of 6.8% to a 4.3% increase, with TSMC reporting a 43% year-on-year sales growth in February [9][10]. - The domestic A-share chip index experienced a downturn of 2.2%, with notable declines in major companies, while only a few, like Aojie Technology, showed positive growth [9][10]. - The Nvidia mapping index surged by 7.3%, reflecting strong performance from Nvidia and its impact on related companies [10][12]. Industry Data Summary - Global industrial computer inventory levels are returning to normal, with Taiwanese IPC companies expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025 [2][21]. - The CAGR for smart watch and band panels is projected to reach 5.7% from 2024 to 2029, with a rebound in TFT LCD panel shipments expected in 2025 [2][24]. - Major semiconductor companies are forecasting a 9% decline in revenue for Q1 2025 compared to Q4 2024, indicating a more challenging market environment than typical seasonal fluctuations [2][26]. Major Events Summary - Shenghong Technology anticipates a net profit of 780 to 980 million yuan for Q1 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 272.12% to 367.54% [3][34]. - Pengding Holdings projects a revenue of 35.14 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting a 9.59% year-on-year growth [3][34]. - Intel's Arizona plant has begun trial production of the Intel 18A process, with Nvidia and Broadcom reportedly conducting tests [3][34].