PRADA(01913) 海通证券·2025-03-16 13:52Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights a significant growth in retail revenue for Miu Miu, which increased by 93% in 2024, with EBIT margin reaching a 10-year high. The overall revenue for 2024 is projected to grow by 14.9% to €5.432 billion, with a net profit increase of 25% to €839 million [5][6] - The company is expected to continue its positive trajectory with revenue forecasts of €6.059 billion in 2025, €6.646 billion in 2026, and €7.207 billion in 2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.5%, 9.7%, and 8.4% respectively [5][6] - The report also notes the appointment of a new CEO for Miu Miu, which may influence future brand strategies and performance [6] Financial Performance and Forecast - Key financial data and projections include: - Revenue (million euros): 2023: 4,726; 2024: 5,432; 2025E: 6,059; 2026E: 6,646; 2027E: 7,207 - Net profit (million euros): 2023: 671; 2024: 839; 2025E: 972; 2026E: 1,088; 2027E: 1,191 - EPS (euros): 2023: 0.26; 2024: 0.33; 2025E: 0.38; 2026E: 0.43; 2027E: 0.47 - Gross margin: 2024: 79.84%; 2025E: 79.80%; 2026E: 79.90%; 2027E: 80.00% [5][6][10] Market Performance - The report indicates that the company's retail performance is strong, with significant contributions from both direct retail and distribution channels. The direct retail network is being optimized, with a focus on expanding Miu Miu's presence in untapped markets [6][10] - The geographical breakdown of retail revenue growth for 2024 shows: - Asia Pacific: +13% - Europe: +18% - Americas: +9% - Japan: +46% - Middle East: +26% [6] Valuation and Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to maintain a high EBIT margin, with projections for net profit growth of 15.9% in 2025, 11.9% in 2026, and 9.5% in 2027. The report assigns a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 23-25X for 2025, translating to a fair value range of HKD 76.01-82.62 [6][10]