Zijin Mining(SH:601899) HTSC·2025-03-16 13:26Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8][17]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience continuous growth in performance, with a projected CAGR of 14% for net profit attributable to shareholders from 2025 to 2028, and a target valuation of 15X for 2025, leading to target prices of 21.99 RMB and 21.36 HKD for A/H shares [1][5][14]. Summary by Sections External Competitiveness: Volume and Cost Advantages - The company shows strong growth potential, with a projected CAGR of 24% for copper production from 2020 to 2024, and 12% for gold production during the same period, outperforming most global peers [2][15]. - The company has demonstrated a high completion rate for production plans, averaging 104% for copper and 96% for gold from 2014 to 2023 [2][15]. - The company’s copper and gold resource volumes have increased significantly, with a 6x and 3x increase respectively from 2014 to 2023, supported by strong cost control and technological advantages [2][15]. Internal Strengths: Leading Technology and Management - The management team has a strong background in mining and technology, having developed innovative mining techniques that have established the company as a leader in economic efficiency [3][16]. - The company has created a positive feedback loop between technological advantages and the ability to develop more mines, enhancing its competitive position [3][16]. Industry Outlook: Positive Long-term Price Trends for Copper and Gold - The report is optimistic about the long-term upward trend in copper prices, with expectations for prices to exceed 10,000 USD/ton due to supply constraints and high demand [4][16]. - For gold, the report anticipates a strong bottom support around 2,500-2,600 USD/ounce, with potential for prices to rise above 3,000 USD/ounce in the long term due to geopolitical factors and concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [4][16]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings are projected to grow significantly, with net profits estimated at 320, 390, 458, 509, and 543 billion RMB from 2024 to 2028, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 22%, 17%, 11%, and 7% respectively [5][17]. - The report highlights a potential revaluation of the company, with current PE at 11.6X, which is at the 19th percentile of the range since 2019, indicating room for recovery [5][17].