LI AUTO(02015) 银河证券·2025-03-18 05:22Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Auto (stock code: 2015.HK) [1][4][5] Core Views - Li Auto achieved a revenue of 144.46 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 16.64%, but net profit decreased by 31.37% to 8.03 billion yuan [4][6] - In Q4 2024, the company reported a revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.09% year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.74% year-on-year [4] - The company delivered 500,500 vehicles in 2024, a 33.10% increase year-on-year, with Q4 deliveries reaching 158,700 units, a 20.40% increase year-on-year [4][5] - The average selling price (ASP) of vehicles decreased by 13.48% year-on-year to 276,800 yuan in 2024, primarily due to the increased sales of lower-priced models [4][5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue and Profit Forecasts: - 2025E: Revenue of 186.90 billion yuan, net profit of 11.49 billion yuan, EPS of 5.41 yuan [6][8] - 2026E: Revenue of 235.39 billion yuan, net profit of 15.40 billion yuan, EPS of 7.26 yuan [6][8] - 2027E: Revenue of 276.45 billion yuan, net profit of 19.11 billion yuan, EPS of 9.01 yuan [6][8] - Key Financial Ratios: - 2024: Gross margin at 20.53%, net profit margin at 5.56% [8] - 2025E: Gross margin expected to decrease to 19.86% [8] - 2024 R&D expense ratio at 7.66%, with a focus on maintaining cost control [4][6] Strategic Initiatives - The launch of new electric models, including the i8 and i6, is expected to enhance market competitiveness and drive sales growth [4][5] - The company is expanding its charging infrastructure, with plans to increase the number of charging stations to 4,000 by the end of 2025 [4][5] - Li Auto is focusing on international market expansion, establishing a presence in Central Asia and planning to enter markets in the Middle East, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific [4][5]