Workflow
华润建材科技(01313):Q4毛利率环比改善,期待盈利弹性
CRBLDG MAT TECCRBLDG MAT TEC(HK:01313) HTSC·2025-03-18 02:28

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 2.304 billion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 211 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 9.8% and 67.2% respectively. The decline is attributed to falling cement prices and increased impairment losses. However, with the gradual recovery of construction activity and the implementation of staggered production, cement prices are expected to rise, benefiting the company as a leading player in South China [1][2][5] - The company’s gross margin improved significantly in Q4, with a gross margin of 19.3%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from the previous quarter. The aggregate business saw a high growth in sales volume, with a year-on-year increase of 56.2% [2][4] - The company plans to reduce capital expenditures by 47.7% to RMB 2.52 billion in 2025, which is expected to further improve its financial condition [3][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenues of RMB 2.304 billion, with a net profit of RMB 211 million, reflecting a decline of 9.8% and 67.2% year-on-year respectively. The second half of 2024 saw revenues of RMB 1.259 billion and a net profit of RMB 50 million, down 11.3% and 44.1% year-on-year [1][2] - The company’s sales in the cement, concrete, and aggregate segments were RMB 15.04 billion, RMB 4.16 billion, and RMB 2.52 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -20.4%, +21.6%, and +56.2% [2] Cost and Margin Analysis - The gross margin for cement, concrete, and aggregate was 15.1%, 12.2%, and 35.1% respectively, with year-on-year changes of +3.4, +0.3, and -19.2 percentage points. The gross margin for Q4 was 19.3%, showing a significant improvement [2][3] - The company’s selling expense ratio decreased slightly to 1.8%, while the management expense ratio increased to 11.4% due to declining revenues [3] Market Outlook - As of March 14, 2025, the national average cement price was RMB 402 per ton, up 9.9% year-on-year. The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in cement prices starting in March 2025 [4] - The company aims to enhance energy efficiency in its cement production lines, with 18 lines meeting the highest energy consumption standards by the end of 2024, which is expected to further highlight its cost advantages [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 0.16, RMB 0.18, and RMB 0.20 respectively, with an upward revision of 21.3% and 29.4% from previous estimates [5][17] - The target price has been adjusted downwards by 17.2% to HKD 2.92, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.43x for 2025 [5][9]