CATL(SZ:300750) Haitong Securities·2025-03-17 13:46Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][6]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain a strong performance with a projected revenue of 362 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.7%, but a net profit of 50.7 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15% [6]. - The company has a dominant market share in both power batteries and energy storage, with a global market share of 37.9% and 36.5% respectively, maintaining its leading position for eight and four consecutive years [6][7]. - The company plans to increase its production capacity and introduce new products, which is expected to enhance its revenue and profitability in the coming years [6][7]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue and profit forecasts indicate a recovery with expected revenues of 430 billion yuan in 2025, 502 billion yuan in 2026, and 582 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 64.5 billion yuan, 77.9 billion yuan, and 93.2 billion yuan respectively [5][6]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 24.4% in 2024 to 26.2% in 2027, indicating a stable increase in profitability [5][6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 11.52 yuan in 2024 to 21.18 yuan in 2027 [5][6]. Market Performance - The stock price closed at 256 yuan on March 17, 2025, with a 52-week price range of 166.8 to 301.5 yuan [2]. - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance decline of 6.2% over the past month, while the overall market index has also experienced fluctuations [3][4]. Product Segmentation and Profitability - The power battery system is expected to generate revenue of 291.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 24.39% [9]. - The energy storage system is projected to achieve revenue of 82.3 billion yuan in 2025, with a gross margin of 27.27% [9]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in the proportion of new products in its sales mix, particularly the Shenxing and Kirin batteries, which are expected to rise from 30-40% to 60-70% of total shipments by 2025 [6][7].