宁德时代（300750）：业绩符合预期，迎新一轮创新周期

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations, showcasing strong profitability resilience with a revenue of 362 billion yuan in 2024, a 9.7% year-on-year decline, while net profit increased by 15% to 50.7 billion yuan [4][7] - The company is entering a new innovation cycle, supported by a solid global competitive position and increasing market share in the domestic power battery sector [7][28] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue is projected to grow from 362 billion yuan in 2024 to 570.6 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1% [6] - Net profit is expected to rise from 50.7 billion yuan in 2024 to 90.9 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6] - The company’s gross margin is forecasted to improve from 24.4% in 2024 to 25.8% by 2027, indicating enhanced operational efficiency [6] Performance Analysis - The company achieved a battery shipment of 475 GWh in 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from both power and energy storage batteries [7][10] - The inventory level increased to 59.8 billion yuan, primarily due to a rise in shipped goods, indicating strong demand expectations for the first half of 2025 [19] - The company plans to steadily expand production capacity, with 219 GWh under construction by the end of 2024 to meet anticipated demand growth [7][24] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company holds a 37.9% share of the global power battery market and a 45.1% share in the domestic market, reflecting a solid competitive position [7][34] - The number of new vehicle models supported by the company increased by 100 in 2024, enhancing its market penetration and potential for future growth [7][42] Cash Flow and Dividend Policy - The company reported a net operating cash flow of 97 billion yuan in 2024, with capital expenditures of 31.2 billion yuan, indicating strong cash generation capabilities [24] - A total cash dividend of over 25 billion yuan was planned for 2024, corresponding to a payout ratio of 50%, with a dividend yield of 2.2% based on the closing price [7][24]