Midea Group(000333) 光大证券·2025-03-17 05:15Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group [3][5] Core Views - The C-end business shows strong resilience, with significant improvements in the robotics segment. The domestic appliance replacement policy is effective, leading to a projected increase in sales [1][2] - The B-end business demonstrates steady growth, particularly in the new energy and industrial technology sectors, with a notable recovery in the robotics and automation segment [2] - Long-term, Midea Group's leading position is solid, supported by efficiency optimization and channel transformation, with a target price of 86.00 CNY based on a 15x PE for 2025 [3] Summary by Sections C-end Business - The domestic appliance replacement policy is expected to drive continued growth in the C-end business, with a projected 24% year-on-year increase in air conditioning sales in Q4 2024 [1] - Overseas sales of air conditioning units are projected to grow by 38% year-on-year in Q4 2024, with a cumulative growth of 31% for the first three quarters of 2024 [1] B-end Business - The B-end business revenue grew by 5% year-on-year in Q1-Q3 2024, with the robotics and automation segment showing a significant improvement in H2 2024 [2] - The robotics and automation segment is estimated to generate 30 billion CNY in revenue for 2024, with a 12% year-on-year increase in Q4 2024 [2] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The report forecasts net profits of 38.88 billion CNY, 43.64 billion CNY, and 49.15 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 14, 12, and 11 [3][4] - Midea's current PE is 14.4, which is below the 5-year average PE of 15.8 for Midea and 18.7 for Haier, indicating a favorable valuation [3]