LI AUTO-W(HK:02015) Changjiang Securities·2025-03-17 02:18Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The report highlights that in Q4 2024, the company achieved sales of 159,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.8%. Revenue reached 44.27 billion yuan, up 6.1% year-on-year and 3.3% quarter-on-quarter. The vehicle gross margin was 19.7%, down 3.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The company's product advantages and brand design are well recognized, and the future vehicle lineup is clearly planned, with a continuous optimization of direct sales channels. The "dual-energy strategy" is expected to further enhance the company's advantages, indicating a broad future sales potential [2][4][5]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In Q4 2024, the company sold 159,000 vehicles, with an average selling price of approximately 269,000 yuan. The sales breakdown by model includes 78,000 for L6, 36,000 for L7, 21,000 for L8, 20,000 for L9, and 3,000 for MEGA. The L6 model accounted for 49% of total sales, remaining stable quarter-on-quarter [5]. Financial Performance - The company reported Q4 2024 revenue of 44.27 billion yuan, with vehicle sales revenue of 42.64 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.52 billion yuan, down 37.7% year-on-year, while the non-GAAP net profit was 4.04 billion yuan, down 12.0% year-on-year. The net profit margin was 9.1%, down 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [4][5]. Future Outlook - The company has a clear product roadmap with a lineup of four extended-range electric vehicle models and one high-voltage pure electric model, covering the market above 200,000 yuan. The strong new vehicle cycle expected to start in 2025 is anticipated to open up significant sales opportunities. As of February 2025, the company had established 500 retail centers across 150 cities, with 1,874 supercharging stations and 10,008 charging piles in operation [5][6]. Profitability Projections - The report projects that the company's net profit attributable to shareholders (GAAP) will reach 9.77 billion yuan, 14.18 billion yuan, and 19.65 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 22.7X, 15.6X, and 11.3X [5].