Huafa Properties(600325) 广发证券·2025-03-19 02:48Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a current price of 5.69 CNY and a fair value of 6.88 CNY [3]. Core Views - The company has faced continuous pressure on its performance, with a significant decline in revenue and profit margins. However, it has managed to maintain a stable dividend payout ratio [7][13]. - The company achieved a sales amount of 105.4 billion CNY in 2024, ranking tenth in the industry, indicating a strong market position despite overall market challenges [7][34]. - The company has a stable debt level and has optimized its financing costs, which supports its liquidity and operational capabilities [7][20]. Summary by Sections Performance Analysis - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 599.9 billion CNY, a decrease of 16.8% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.5 billion CNY, down 48.2% year-on-year [7][13]. - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.9 billion CNY, maintaining a payout ratio consistent with previous years [7][13]. - The overall gross margin declined to 14.3%, down 3.8 percentage points from the previous year, primarily due to lower project margins from past acquisitions [7][25]. Sales Analysis - The company achieved a sales amount of 1054 billion CNY in 2024, a decrease of 16.3% year-on-year, but it improved its ranking in the industry to tenth place [7][34]. - The sales area was 3.7 million square meters, with an average selling price of 28,529 CNY per square meter, reflecting a decrease in both area sold and price [34][35]. Land Acquisition and Construction Analysis - The total land acquisition cost was 9.41 billion CNY, with a focus on high-margin projects in first and second-tier cities [7][34]. - The company completed 4.88 million square meters of construction in 2024, a decrease of 5.2% year-on-year [7][21]. Financial Stability - As of the end of 2024, the company had total interest-bearing liabilities of 141.6 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 2% year-on-year, with a financing cost reduced to 5.22% [7][20]. - The company has a pre-sale fund of 87.4 billion CNY, which covers approximately 1.6 years of revenue, providing a buffer for future performance [20][21]. Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The company is expected to recover with projected net profits of 11.8 billion CNY and 13.2 billion CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, indicating a potential for profit recovery [7][8]. - The fair value estimate of 6.88 CNY per share corresponds to a 16x price-to-earnings ratio for 2025, supporting the "Buy" rating [7][8].