华发股份（600325）：业绩承压下行，销售有规模、投资有定力

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6]. Core Views - The company experienced a decline in performance, with a revenue of 59.992 billion yuan in 2024, down 16.84% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.951 billion yuan, down 48.24% year-on-year. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.04 yuan per 10 shares, which accounts for 30.04% of the net profit [3][12]. - The decline in performance is attributed to reduced revenue recognition, declining gross margins, and increased asset credit impairment. The gross margin for 2024 was 14.32%, a decrease of 3.82 percentage points year-on-year [3][13]. - Despite the challenges, the company achieved total sales of 105.4 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining its position in the 100 billion yuan club for five consecutive years, with a pre-sale amount of 87.355 billion yuan, indicating ample resources for future revenue recognition [3][14]. - The company focuses on key cities for investment, maintaining a prudent approach, and has a stable financial structure, with the "three red lines" policy remaining in the green zone. The company acquired six quality projects in core cities in 2024 [3][15]. - Future performance is expected to improve under the support of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with projected net profits of 0.991 billion yuan, 1.101 billion yuan, and 1.373 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3][16]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 59.992 billion yuan, a decrease of 16.84% from the previous year, and a net profit of 0.951 billion yuan, down 48.24% year-on-year. The gross margin was 14.32%, down 3.82 percentage points [3][12][13]. - The company’s total sales for 2024 were 105.4 billion yuan, with a pre-sale amount of 87.355 billion yuan, indicating strong future revenue potential [3][14]. Investment Strategy - The company is focusing on key cities and has adopted a prudent investment strategy, acquiring six quality projects in major cities in 2024. The financial structure remains stable, with a debt ratio of 70.26% [3][15]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in performance supported by government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market, with projected net profits increasing from 0.991 billion yuan in 2025 to 1.373 billion yuan in 2027 [3][16].