CHALCO(SH:601600) Minsheng Securities·2025-03-19 01:02Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company is a leader in the aluminum industry with a significant integrated layout advantage, possessing a complete industrial chain from upstream mineral resource extraction to downstream aluminum processing [1][11]. - The company has rich bauxite resources, with domestic reserves of 157 million tons and overseas reserves of 1.761 billion tons in Guinea, ensuring stable raw material supply for alumina production [1][24]. - The acquisition of Yun Aluminum has enhanced the company's position in the green aluminum sector, with the green electricity ratio in electrolytic aluminum production reaching 45.2% in 2023 [2][41]. - The company is expected to achieve substantial net profits in the coming years, with projected net profits of 12.717 billion yuan, 15.377 billion yuan, and 17.414 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively [4][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company is the only international large aluminum company with a complete industrial chain, covering bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and various aluminum products [11][22]. - It has established a "3×5" industrial development pattern, integrating core main industries, core sub-industries, supporting industries, collaborative industries, and green industries [1][22]. 2. Bauxite and Alumina - The company has a self-sufficiency rate of approximately 60% for alumina, with a total alumina production capacity of 22.26 million tons as of the end of 2023 [2][29]. - The alumina production is supported by abundant bauxite resources, ensuring stable raw material supply [2][29]. 3. Electrolytic Aluminum - The company has significantly increased its electrolytic aluminum production from 3.86 million tons in 2021 to 6.79 million tons in 2023, aided by the acquisition of Yun Aluminum [2][41]. - The electrolytic aluminum production is primarily located in regions with abundant coal and electricity resources, enhancing production efficiency [41][42]. 4. Energy Sector - The company has a promising outlook in the renewable energy sector, with steady growth in installed capacity for wind and solar energy [3][35]. - Coal production has also seen a steady increase, with a total coal output of 13.05 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 21.51% [3][32]. 5. Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company is expected to achieve significant net profit growth in the coming years, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 9, and 8 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 [4][47]. - The report emphasizes the company's strong resource security and operational flexibility, making it a favorable investment opportunity as aluminum prices rise [4][47].