CATL(SZ:300750) EBSCN·2025-03-18 05:12Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return exceeding the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [4][12]. Core Views - The company is expected to see a revenue of 362.01 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 9.7% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 50.74 billion yuan, an increase of 15.0% year-on-year [1]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 45.53 yuan per 10 shares (including tax), with total dividends accounting for 50% of the net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 [1]. - The company's battery sales are expected to grow, with a 21.79% year-on-year increase in lithium battery sales to 475 GWh in 2024 [1]. - The report highlights a significant improvement in gross margins for both power batteries (23.94%, up 5.81 percentage points) and energy storage batteries (26.84%, up 8.19 percentage points) [1]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, with a total capacity of 676 GWh expected by the end of 2024 and an additional 219 GWh under construction [1]. Summary by Sections Business Segments - Power battery sales in Q4 2024 reached 125 GWh, with a unit price of 0.62 yuan/Wh, showing a 7% decrease quarter-on-quarter, while the unit gross profit increased to 0.14 yuan/Wh, reflecting a 0.01 yuan/Wh increase [2]. - The gross margin for power batteries improved to 23.2%, up 3.7 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, driven by product structure upgrades [2]. - Energy storage battery sales in Q4 2024 were 20 GWh, with a unit price of 0.55 yuan/Wh, and a gross margin of 20.0%, down 7.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter due to delays in revenue recognition from overseas projects [2]. Competitive Advantage - The company is enhancing its product matrix with new offerings like the Xiaoyao and Tianxing batteries, which are expected to support over 30 vehicle models and drive growth in 2025 [3]. - The demand for energy storage solutions is anticipated to rise due to the increasing need for data centers powered by AI, with the company's PU100 energy storage product designed to meet urgent power supply needs [3]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s revenue is projected to rebound to 457.18 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 26.29%, and net profit is expected to reach 65.64 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 29.36% [7]. - The report forecasts a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 17 for 2025, decreasing to 12 by 2027, indicating a favorable valuation trend [3][9].