Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve significant profit growth in 2024, with a projected revenue of 156.169 billion yuan, a gross profit of 42.163 billion yuan, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 22.372 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 16.9%, 101.2%, and 95.21% respectively [1][2]. - The increase in profits is primarily driven by rising aluminum prices and a decrease in the costs of coal and prebaked anodes, which has led to lower costs for electrolytic aluminum [1]. - The company has significantly increased its dividend payout, with a total dividend of 1.61 HKD per share for 2024, representing a 155.56% increase from the previous year, resulting in a dividend yield of 10% based on the current share price [5]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - The sales volume of aluminum alloy products increased by 1.5% to 5.837 million tons, while the sales volume of processed products surged by 32.1% to 766,000 tons, contributing to revenue growth [2]. - The average price of aluminum in 2024 is projected to be 19,976 yuan per ton, up 7.2% year-on-year, while the average price of prebaked anodes is expected to decrease by 19.7% to 3,958 yuan per ton [2]. - The company’s alumina sales volume is expected to reach 10.921 million tons, a 5.3% increase, with revenue and gross profit from alumina rising by 40.6% and 347.25% respectively [3]. Cost and Expense Management - The company has maintained stable expense levels, with significant increases in investment income from joint ventures, rising from 1.2 billion yuan in 2023 to 1.8 billion yuan in 2024 [4]. - The company recorded a total impairment and fair value change of 4.8 billion yuan, with 2.6 billion yuan attributed to fixed asset impairment primarily related to power plants [4]. Dividend Policy - The company’s dividend payout ratio reached 63%, significantly exceeding expectations, with a total dividend amounting to 15.3 billion HKD [5].
中国宏桥：高盈利持续，分红大超预期-20250320