LIUGONG(000528) 光大证券·2025-03-20 01:06Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [4][15][6]. Core Viewpoints - The company is a well-established state-owned enterprise in the engineering machinery sector, with a solid industry position and a diverse product line [25][26]. - The company is expected to benefit significantly from the recovery of industry demand driven by equipment upgrades and macroeconomic policies [1][45]. - The rapid electrification of loaders presents substantial growth opportunities for the company's revenue [2][3]. - The company has a strong potential for export growth, particularly in emerging markets, which will support its overall performance [3][13]. - The mixed-ownership reform has injected new growth momentum into the company, opening up new business lines [4][5]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company was founded in 1958 and has evolved into a major manufacturer of various types of machinery, achieving a revenue of 27.52 billion yuan in 2023, ranking 19th globally and 4th domestically in the engineering machinery sector [25][26]. - The company has a strong market share in loaders, with 19,000 units sold in 2023, maintaining its leading position in the domestic market [26][30]. Growth Logic - Equipment Upgrades: The engineering machinery industry is currently at a cyclical low, but demand is expected to recover as macro policies take effect, with significant support from equipment upgrades [1][45]. - Loader Electrification: The electrification of loaders is accelerating, with a projected sales growth of 212.1% in 2024, indicating a substantial market expansion opportunity [2][3]. - Export Potential: The export value of China's engineering machinery has grown significantly, with the company achieving overseas revenue of 11.46 billion yuan in 2023, representing a 41.7% share of total revenue [3][41]. - Mixed-Ownership Reform: The reform has improved operational efficiency and broadened the product range, with new business lines expected to contribute positively to overall performance [4][5]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.12 billion, and 2.74 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 19, 12, and 9 [4][15]. - The revenue growth rate is expected to be 9.83% in 2024, 17.57% in 2025, and 15.14% in 2026, indicating a robust growth trajectory [5][15].