华润双鹤：输液包材持续升级，毓婷领衔专科增长-20250320

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 25.50 [6][7]. Core Views - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of RMB 11.66 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth of 4% year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 1.77 billion, representing an 8.61% increase year-on-year [5][6]. - The report highlights the recovery of demand in the large infusion segment in Q1 2025, ongoing upgrades in packaging materials, and increased capacity utilization as key drivers for profit growth [1][2]. Summary by Sections Infusion Segment - The infusion segment is projected to generate revenue of RMB 3.04 billion in 2024, down 4.4% year-on-year, primarily due to weak demand caused by a warm winter [2]. - The company anticipates that large infusion sales will stabilize in 2025, with a gradual recovery expected in Q1 [2]. - Cost reduction through upgrades to high-end packaging and automation is expected to maintain profit levels in this segment [2]. Non-Infusion Segment - The non-infusion segment is expected to generate revenue of RMB 8.08 billion in 2024, showing a growth of 1.03% year-on-year, with a forecasted single-digit growth in 2025 [3]. - The report emphasizes the strong performance of the Yuting series and oncology products, which are expected to drive double-digit growth in the specialty segment [3]. - The raw materials segment is projected to see a slight revenue decline in 2024 but is expected to stabilize in 2025 [3]. Potential Growth Points - The company has established eight core technology platforms with over 20 key projects in development, including a new drug entering Phase III trials [4]. - The expansion into e-commerce and OTC channels is expected to contribute to a revenue and profit growth of around 10% in 2025 [4]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the company's exploration in synthetic biology and other innovative fields during the 14th Five-Year Plan [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The expected EPS for 2025 is RMB 1.70, with a PE ratio of 15 times, aligning with the industry average [5]. - The company’s market capitalization is approximately RMB 20.54 billion, with a closing price of RMB 19.77 as of March 19, 2025 [7].