玖龙纸业（02689）：公司研究报告：包装纸行业龙头，产能持续扩张

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][8]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the packaging paper industry with continuous capacity expansion [6]. - For the fiscal year 2025, the company reported a revenue of 33.465 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.06%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 470 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60.57% [8]. - The sales volume of cardboard products increased by 14.0% to 11.4 million tons, with average selling prices decreasing by 4.1% [8]. - Gross profit increased by 18.1% to 3.194 billion yuan, with a gross margin improvement of 0.7 percentage points to 9.5% [8]. - The company has ongoing capacity expansion plans, including 3.05 million tons of wood pulp and 3.70 million tons of paper, which are expected to enhance market competitiveness and profitability [8]. Financial Data and Forecasts - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 56.884 billion yuan in 2023, 59.818 billion yuan in 2024, 69.203 billion yuan in 2025, 79.053 billion yuan in 2026, and 86.708 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -12.2%, 5.2%, 15.7%, 14.2%, and 9.7% respectively [7][11]. - Net profit forecasts for the same period are -2.383 billion yuan in 2023, 750 million yuan in 2024, 1.353 billion yuan in 2025, 1.882 billion yuan in 2026, and 2.499 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of -172.8%, 131.5%, 80.2%, 39.1%, and 32.8% respectively [7][11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be -0.51 yuan in 2023, 0.16 yuan in 2024, 0.29 yuan in 2025, 0.40 yuan in 2026, and 0.53 yuan in 2027 [7][11]. Business Segment Performance - The packaging paper segment is expected to see revenue growth rates of 7.06%, 16.13%, 15.00%, and 10.00% from 2024 to 2027 [10]. - The cultural paper segment is projected to experience a decline in revenue by 12.05% in 2024, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 5.00% in 2026 and 5.00% in 2027 [10]. - Overall, the company anticipates a gross margin improvement to 10.11% in 2025, 10.50% in 2026, and 11.00% in 2027 [11].