Coinbase Global Inc-A：高增长驱动业绩超预期，监管与市场波动仍是关键挑战-20250320

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Coinbase Global with a target price of $245.00, representing a potential upside of 29.12$189.75 [3][19]. Core Insights - Coinbase experienced significant revenue growth in Q4 2024, with total revenue reaching $2.272 billion, exceeding market expectations by 22$1.289 billion, with a profit margin of 56.82%, and adjusted EPS was $4.67, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 144$3.108 billion - 2024: $6.564 billion - 2025E:$8.079 billion - 2026E: $8.286 billion - 2027E:$8.780 billion - Year-over-year growth rates are projected at: - 2023: -2.69% - 2024: 111.17% - 2025E: 23.08% - 2026E: 2.57% - 2027E: 5.95% [4][21]. Q1 2025 Guidance - Management provided guidance for Q1 2025, estimating subscription and service revenue between $685 million and$765 million. Total expenses for T&D and G&A are expected to be between $750 million and$800 million, while S&M expenses are projected at $235 million to$375 million [18][19]. - As of February 11, 2025, the company reported approximately $750 million in trading revenue [18]. Market Context - The report highlights that Coinbase's revenue is highly dependent on cryptocurrency price fluctuations, and potential market corrections could impact both trading volume and fees. Increased competition and regulatory uncertainties in the U.S. are also noted as potential challenges [19][5].