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药明康德(603259):2024年年报点评:资本开支持续高投入,TIDES订单增长强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 39.241 billion in 2024, a decrease of 2.73%, but a 5.2% increase when excluding specific commercial production projects. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 9.450 billion, down 1.63%, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was RMB 9.988 billion, up 2.47% [5][3]. - The chemical business generated revenue of RMB 29.052 billion, a slight decrease of 0.41%, while the TIDES business (oligonucleotides and peptides) saw significant growth, with revenue reaching RMB 5.800 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.1% [2][3]. - The company is expected to continue high capital expenditure, with projections for 2025 reaching RMB 7-8 billion, and is expanding production capacity across various bases [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, the company reported a revenue of RMB 11.539 billion and a net profit of RMB 2.917 billion, with a net profit excluding non-recurring items of RMB 3.306 billion [5][3]. - The chemical business's gross margin was 46.39%, while the testing and biological businesses had gross margins of 32.73% and 37.70%, respectively [2][3]. Business Segments - The TIDES business backlog grew by 103.9% year-on-year by the end of 2024, indicating strong demand and future revenue potential [2][3]. - The company is actively investing in production capacity, with the new API production base in Taixing expected to commence operations in 2024, and further expansions planned for 2025 and beyond [2][3]. Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at RMB 42.613 billion, RMB 48.603 billion, and RMB 54.890 billion, respectively, with expected growth rates of 8.6%, 14.1%, and 12.9% [3][5]. - Net profit forecasts for the same years are RMB 11.137 billion, RMB 12.940 billion, and RMB 14.906 billion, with growth rates of 17.8%, 16.2%, and 15.2% [3][5].