HKEX(00388) 开源证券·2025-03-20 09:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The valuation of Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) has lagged behind trading volume, with a recovery in IPOs positively impacting the long-term Average Daily Turnover (ADT) [4][6] - In 2025, the ADT is projected to reach 2200 billion HKD, with a year-on-year increase of 66.9% [4] - The company's net profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised to 168, 169, and 172 billion HKD, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.0%, 0.2%, and 2.2% [4] Summary by Sections Market Activity and Performance - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a continuous improvement in activity, with the ADT reaching a historical peak of 2973 billion HKD in February 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 230% [13][14] - The trading volume remained active in March, with figures of 3181 and 2863 billion HKD, showing year-on-year increases of 203% and 152% respectively [13] Regulatory Support for IPOs - Regulatory measures have encouraged A-share companies to list in Hong Kong, enhancing market capitalization and activity [6] - As of February 2025, 10 IPOs have occurred, doubling year-on-year, with a financing scale of 7.8 billion HKD, up 258% [32][34] - The approval process for IPOs has been optimized, facilitating the listing of mainland companies in Hong Kong [36] Financial Projections - The company's revenue for 2025 is projected to be 27,785 million HKD, with a year-on-year growth of 24.18% [7] - The net profit for 2025 is estimated at 16,828 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.95% [7] - The sensitivity analysis indicates that an ADT of 1700, 2200, and 3000 billion HKD corresponds to net profit changes of +8%, +29%, and +62% respectively [27]