中国平安：深化战略布局，利润同比大幅提升-20250320

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][4][9] Core Views - The company has significantly enhanced its strategic layout, leading to a substantial increase in profits, with a projected revenue of 1,028.93 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 12.6%, and a net profit of 126.61 billion yuan, up 47.8% year-on-year [1] - The company is benefiting from a high growth in new business value (NBV) in life insurance, with a 28.8% year-on-year increase in 2024, driven by channel reforms and improved agent productivity [2] - The company has optimized its combined operating ratio (COR), achieving a 98.3% ratio, which is an improvement of 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, while non-auto insurance premiums have seen significant growth [3] - The company has prudently adjusted its investment return rate assumption to 4.0% and risk discount rates to 8.5% and 7.5% for traditional and non-traditional insurance products, respectively, enhancing the credibility of its valuation [4] Financial Performance and Forecast - The company expects to achieve a diluted earnings per share (EPS) of 7.72 yuan in 2025, up from the previous estimate of 6.55 yuan, with projected EPS for 2026 and 2027 at 8.57 yuan and 9.26 yuan, respectively [4][5] - The projected net profit for 2025 is 140.66 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.1% increase from 2024, with a continued upward trend expected in subsequent years [5] - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 11.17 in 2023 to 5.84 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation relative to earnings [7]