国药股份（600511）：收入平稳增长，部分子公司拖累业绩

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 41.76 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a stable revenue growth with a slight increase in revenue of 1.8% year-on-year, but a decline in net profit by 6.8% due to market conditions and extended payment cycles from clients [1][2]. - Despite short-term performance fluctuations, the long-term growth logic remains intact, supported by a solid core business [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects revenue of 50.6 billion RMB, net profit of 2 billion RMB, and a non-deducted net profit of 19.96 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year change of +1.8%, -6.8%, and -4.6% respectively [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 12.57 billion RMB, with net profit and non-deducted net profit at 5.19 billion RMB and 5.07 billion RMB, showing declines of -4.5%, -24.1%, and -23.4% year-on-year [1]. Subsidiary Performance - Several subsidiaries impacted overall performance, with notable figures including: - Guokong Beijing: Revenue of 14.78 billion RMB (+7.1%), net profit of 356 million RMB (+7.0%) - Beijing Huahong: Revenue of 6.28 billion RMB (+5.8%), net profit of 81 million RMB (-33.8%) - Guorui Pharmaceutical: Revenue of 470 million RMB (-56.5%), net profit of 32 million RMB (-63.6%) [2]. Cost and Margin Analysis - The company managed to reduce its sales expense ratio in Q4 2024, while the gross margin decreased to 7.11% for the year, down 0.93 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in high-margin industrial product sales [3]. Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 2.1 billion RMB, 2.2 billion RMB, and 2.3 billion RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 2.78 RMB, 2.92 RMB, and 3.07 RMB [4][6]. - The estimated revenue growth rates for the next few years are projected at approximately 5% annually [4]. Valuation Metrics - The company is assigned a PE ratio of 15x for 2025, with a target price of 41.76 RMB, reflecting a valuation adjustment from a previous target of 43.89 RMB [4][8].