皖维高新（600063）：全年PVA景气偏弱，新材料加快放量

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" with a target price of 5.00 RMB [7][8]. Core Views - The overall PVA market is experiencing weak demand, but the company is seeing increased revenue from polyester chips and PVA optical films. The company reported a revenue of 8.03 billion RMB for 2024, a decrease of 2.8% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 370 million RMB, an increase of 8.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s fourth quarter of 2024 showed significant growth, with a revenue of 2.08 billion RMB, up 33% year-on-year, and a net profit of 170 million RMB, up 363% year-on-year. This exceeded expectations due to reduced financial costs and increased PVA sales [1][2]. - The company is expected to benefit from a favorable competitive landscape in the PVA market and the ramp-up of its new materials segment, including PVA optical films and PVB intermediate films [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company’s PVA sales increased by 1% to 209,000 tons, while revenue from PVA decreased by 4% to 2.26 billion RMB. The average price per ton also fell by 4% to 11,000 RMB [2]. - The company’s overall gross margin improved by 0.3 percentage points to 13.0% in 2024, with a gross margin of 12.6% in Q4 2024 [2]. Market Outlook - The PVA price and the price difference with acetylene have increased by 3.4% and 296 RMB/ton respectively since the beginning of the year. The company anticipates a recovery in PVA market conditions supported by demand and an optimized competitive landscape [3]. - The company plans to launch new production lines for VAE emulsions and PVA optical films, aiming for full production by Q2 2025 [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 530 million RMB, 670 million RMB, and 770 million RMB respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 43%, 27%, and 15% [4]. - The estimated EPS for 2025 is 0.25 RMB, and the company is assigned a target price based on a 20x PE ratio for 2025, leading to a target price of 5.00 RMB [4].