Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057) [2][6] Core Insights - ZTO Express reported a revenue of 44.28 billion CNY for 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 15.3%, with adjusted net profit reaching 10.15 billion CNY, up 12.7% [6] - The company aims to prioritize market share, indicating an expectation of intensified price competition in the industry [6] - The report has adjusted profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now predicting adjusted net profits of 9.904 billion CNY and 10.95 billion CNY respectively, down from previous estimates [6] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 38.419 billion CNY - 2024: 44.281 billion CNY - 2025E: 49.173 billion CNY - 2026E: 55.692 billion CNY - 2027E: 62.710 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at 9%, 15%, 11%, 13%, and 13% respectively [5] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.006 billion CNY - 2024: 10.150 billion CNY - 2025E: 9.904 billion CNY - 2026E: 10.950 billion CNY - 2027E: 12.525 billion CNY - Year-on-year growth rates for adjusted net profit are projected at 32%, 13%, -2%, 11%, and 14% respectively [5] Market Position and Performance - In 2024, ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 34 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 12.6%, with a market share of 19.4% [6] - The average revenue per package for 2024 was 1.30 CNY, with a slight increase in Q4 to 1.32 CNY [6] - The company maintains a strong competitive position, with the highest market share and service efficiency among peers [6]
中通快递-W（02057）：目标转向份额，后续行业竞争中检验成色