证券研究报告：交通运输 | 公司点评报告 发布时间：2026-03-23 股票投资评级 买入|维持 个股表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 中通快递 交通运输 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 | 公司基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 最新收盘价（港元） | 193.80 | | 总股本/流通股本（亿股） | 7.70 / 7.70 | | 总市值/流通市值（亿港元） | 1492 / 1492 | | 52 周内最高/最低价 | 200.00 / 121.75 | | 资产负债率(%) | 26.2% | | 市盈率 | 14.8 | | 第一大股东 | Zto Lms Holding | | | Limited | 研究所 分析师:曾凡喆 SAC 登记编号:S1340523100002 Email:zengfanzhe@cnpsec.com 中通快递 (2057.HK) 量升价稳业绩稳健，提升股东回报显价值 ⚫ 中通快递公布 2025 年经营业绩 中通快递公布 2025 年经营业绩，全年营业收入 491.0 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant growth in core net profit for 2025, driven by high-end product offerings and export expansion for Geely Automobile [4][5] - Geely's total delivery volume reached 3.025 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.0%, with total revenue of 345.23 billion yuan, up 25.1% [4] - The company expects to launch multiple new models in 2026, including the Zeekr 8X, which has shown strong pre-sale performance [5][6] Group 2 - The report indicates a substantial increase in overseas sales for Geely, with exports reaching 121,000 units in January-February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 129.4% [6] - Geely aims to expand its overseas channels to over 2,000 and has set an annual export target of 640,000 units for 2026 [6] - The company is advancing its AI strategy, integrating AI technology into core automotive functions, and has announced a partnership with NVIDIA to enhance AI capabilities [6] Group 3 - The report projects Geely's revenue to grow to 421.8 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to reach 215 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27% [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.98 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.2 times [7] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Geely, citing the company's strong growth potential driven by new energy products and high-end brand sales [7] Group 4 - The report on Blukoo indicates a significant increase in revenue, reaching 2.913 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 30.0% [8][9] - The adjusted net profit for Blukoo was 675 million yuan, up 15.5% from the previous year, despite a decline in gross margin due to rising costs [8] - The company has seen a notable increase in adult-targeted products, with a significant rise in the number of SKUs aimed at consumers aged 16 and above [10] Group 5 - The report on Xiechuang Data shows a remarkable revenue growth of 93.77% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 3.905 billion yuan [13] - The net profit for the same quarter was 466 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 246.15% [13] - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with intelligent computing products becoming a significant contributor to overall income [13] Group 6 - The report on SF Holding indicates a 9.44% year-on-year increase in business volume for January-February 2026, with revenue from express logistics reaching 36.817 billion yuan [18] - The average revenue per package has slightly decreased by 0.79%, but the company expects stabilization in pricing as it adjusts its market strategy [18] - The long-term outlook for SF Holding remains positive, with expectations for growth in international business and supply chain services [19] Group 7 - Tencent Music's revenue for 2025 was 32.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with net profit rising by 66.4% to 11.06 billion yuan [22][24] - The company has seen strong growth in its online music subscription business, with a notable increase in both user payment rates and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [26] - The report highlights the potential for AI to enhance music creation and consumption, driving further growth in the industry [28] Group 8 - The report on the electric power ETF indicates a significant opportunity for asset revaluation in the power sector, driven by the increasing demand for electricity from data centers [30][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new pricing mechanisms for electricity generation, which are expected to enhance the profitability of power assets [32] - The electric power sector is positioned as a defensive investment, with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities, making it attractive for long-term investors [34]

中通快递-W（2057.HK） 2025 年四季报及 2025 年业绩点评 龙头优势扩大，股东回报增强 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 03 月 22 日 [盈利预测与财务指标 Table_Forcast] | 单位/百万人民币 | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入 | 49,099 | 56,948 | 62,001 | 66,285 | | 增长率（%） | 10.9 | 16.0 | 8.9 | 6.9 | | 归母净利润 | 9,081 | 11,365 | 12,918 | 13,984 | | 增长率（%） | 3.0 | 25.2 | 13.7 | 8.3 | | EPS | 11.79 | 14.76 | 16.78 | 18.16 | | P/E | 15 | 12 | 10 | 10 | | P/B | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.5 | -20% 0% 20% 40% 2025/3 2025/9 2026/3 中通快递-W 恒生指数 相关研究 本公司具备证券 ...

| | | | ——国泰海通交运周观察 | [Table_Invest] 评级： | 增持 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | [Table_subIndustry] | | 油运战略价值凸显，快递行业量价双升 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 本报告导读： 航空：国内客座率高企票价上升，国际中欧航线票价大涨，油价影响或小于担忧， 建议把握地缘油价逆向时机。油运：油运战略价值凸显，中国船队价值将超预期。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《"超级周期"正在开启，地缘油价逆向时 机》2026.03.21 运输《油运迎来"超级牛市"，期待超高景气持 续》2026.03 ...

证券研究报告 港股通 中通快递-W (2057 HK/ZTO US) 4Q 快递价格上涨+市场份额提升 华泰研究 年报点评 2026 年 3 月 21 日│中国香港/美国 仓储物流 中通快递公布 2025 年业绩：营收 491 亿元，同比+10.9%；归母净利 90.8 亿元，同比+3.0%，基本符合我们的预期 89.8 亿元；调整后归母净利 93.6 亿元，同比-7.2%。调整后利润同比下滑主因 1H25 价格战拖累，自 2H25 以来，公司盈利环比显著回升主要受益于"反内卷"政策下的快递价格上涨。 其中，4Q25 调整后归母净利 26.3 亿，同环比-1.6%/+5.4%。同时，公司宣 布年末每股派息 0.39 美元，对应分红率 40%。展望 26 年，我们预计"反 内卷"政策仍将持续，公司件量及单票收入同比有望上涨，推升盈利，维持 "买入"。 进一步增强股东回报，现金分红+股份回购 根据公司公告，自 2026 年起，公司目标年度股东回报总额比例不低于上一 财年调整后净利润的 50%，包括现金股息及股份回购。其中，股份回购方 面，自 2026 年 3 月 20 日至 2028 年 3 月 20 日，公司将 ...

2026 年 03 月 21 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) 研究所： 证券分析师： 匡培钦 S0350525120001 kuangpq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 秦梦鸽 S0350526010003 qinmg@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 龙头份额及盈利优势凸显，大幅强化股东回报 ——中通快递-W（02057）2025 年业绩点评 最近一年走势 2026 年 3 月 18 日，中通快递发布 2025 年全年业绩公告：2025 年全年 实现营业收入 490.99 亿元，同比+10.9%，调整后净利润 95.13 亿元， 同比-6.3%；其中，2025Q4 实现营业收入 145.11 亿元，同比+12.3%， 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比-1.4%。 投资要点: | | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 中通快递-W | -0.2% | 16.3% | 23.5% | | 恒生指数 | -4.3% | -1.6% | 4.4% | | 市场数据 | | | 2026/03/20 | | 当 ...

五年前我们问"谁会是最终赢家"，如今战局变了吗？ 作者/毕中臣 2025年，"十四五"规划收官之年，现代物流在复杂多变的发展环境中顶住压力，以14.3万亿元总收入、4.1%同比增速的答卷，印证了其作为生产性服务业 支柱的不可替代性。 展望未来，行业正逐步从规模扩张期进入质效提升期——结构优化、动力转换成为主线。而在这轮变革中，零担快运企业竞争格局发生了翻天覆地的变 化：头部企业逐渐从"价格战"转向"AI赋能"。 2021年曾发文《研判：零担快运龙头之战开演，谁会是最终赢家》，站在"十五五"前夕回望，战局已然生变。本文将复盘零担快运关键事件，探寻行业下 一个破局点。 01 行业格局：从百家争鸣到三足鼎立 一、市场规模：持续增长的万亿蓝海 根据国家统计局数据，2025年我国货运量达587亿吨，同比增速3.2%。按照货物运输工具不同分为公路、水运、铁路、民航四种，其中公路货运量高达 432.9亿吨，占比货运市场73.7%，同比增速3.4%，公路货运市场份额巨大，可以孕育多家千亿级市值物流企业。 按照运输货物的重量公斤段对公路货运市场进一步拆分为：快递-快运-整车，按照收入排序，快递<快运<整车，中国公路货运呈"金字 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [1][3] Core Views - The company aims to enhance shareholder returns while balancing volume and quality, showcasing its leading value in the industry [1] - ZTO Express is expected to benefit from the high-quality development phase of the e-commerce express delivery industry, with stable pricing and increased market share for leading companies [3] Financial Performance - In Q4 2025, adjusted net profit was CNY 2.695 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.26, down by CNY 0.03 [1] - For the full year 2025, adjusted net profit totaled CNY 9.51 billion, a decline of 6.3%, with an adjusted net profit per ticket of CNY 0.25, down 17.2% [1] - The company completed a business volume of 10.56 billion packages in Q4 2025, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%, surpassing the industry growth rate by 4.2 percentage points [1] - The total package volume for 2025 reached 38.52 billion, up 13.3% year-on-year, maintaining a market share of 19.4% [1] Revenue and Cost Analysis - In Q4 2025, the average revenue per ticket was CNY 1.35, an increase of 2.9% year-on-year, primarily due to price increases for direct customers [2] - The average cost per ticket in Q4 2025 was CNY 1.01, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, while transportation costs decreased by 8.9% [2] - The company expects to achieve a package volume of 42.37 to 43.52 billion in 2026, representing a growth of 10% to 13% [2] Shareholder Returns - ZTO Express announced a semi-annual dividend of USD 0.39 per share, maintaining a policy of distributing dividends at least 40% of the previous year's adjusted net profit [2] - The company plans to repurchase up to USD 1.5 billion in shares over the next two years [2] Future Projections - The report projects adjusted net profits for 2026 to be CNY 11.05 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 12.0 [4] - The target price for ZTO Express is set at HKD 242, indicating a potential upside of 23% from the current price of HKD 196.40 [5]

-21% -13% -5% 2% 10% 18% 中通快递-W 恒生指数 分析师 祝玉波 SAC 证书编号：S0160525100001 zhuyb01@ctsec.com 反内卷红利逐步释放，长期龙头价值凸显 中通快递-W(02057) 证券研究报告 物流 / 公司点评 / 2026.03.19 | 投资评级:买入(维持) | | --- | | 基本数据 | 2026-03-18 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港元) | 196.40 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 5.64 | | 每股净资产(元) | 77.34 | | 总股本(亿股) | 7.70 | 最近 12 月市场表现 联系人 史亚州 shiyz01@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《规模为先，强底盘龙头拐点将至》 2025-11-27 核心观点 盈利预测 | [币种Table_FinchinaSimple] (人民币) | 2024A | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万) | 44,281 | 49 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中通快递-W（02057.HK）2025 年报点评 强推（维持） 提高股东综合回报，量质并举彰显龙头价值， 持续强推 ❖ 公司发布 2025 年业绩： 财务数据：25Q4 调整后净利润 26.95 亿元，同比下降 1.4%，单票调整后净利 润 0.26 元，同比下滑 0.03 元，环比 Q3 持平（Q3 收到所得税返还 3.76 亿元 若剔除所得税返还的影响，根据我们测算，Q4 单票调整后净利润环比 Q3 提 升约 0.033 元）。25 年全年累计调整后净利润 95.1 亿元，同比下滑 6.3%，单 票调整后净利润 0.25 亿元，同比下滑 17.2%，降幅约 0.05 元。 业务量：25Q4 完成业务量 105.6 亿件，同比增长 9.2%，超过行业增速 4.2 个 pct，Q4 公司市场份额 19.6%，同比提升 0.8 个 pct，环比 25Q3 提升 0.2 个 pct。 25 年全年完成包裹量 385.2 亿件，同比+13.3%，实现市占率 19.4%，同比持 平。2025 年散件业务量持续提升，25Q4 实现日均 980 万件，同比增长超 38%。 单票收入：25Q4 单 ...