行 业 及 产 业 交通运输 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 闫海 A0230519010004 yanhai@swsresearch.com 罗石 A0230524080012 luoshi@swsresearch.com 严天鹏 A0230524090004 yantp@swsresearch.com 王晨鉴 A0230525030001 wangcj@swsresearch.com 王易 A0230525050001 wangyi@swsresearch.com 张慧 A0230524100001 zhanghui@swsresearch.com 王凯婕 A0230525110001 wangkj@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郑逸欢 A0230124010001 zhengyh@swsresearch.com 联系人 范晨轩 A0230525070003 fancx@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 20 日 首支船舶产业指数基金发布，油 ...

行业研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 快递行业 11 月数据点评 行业增速放缓，顺丰、圆通继续跑赢行业； 推荐（维持） 申通 11 月并表丹鸟，期待网络协同 投资建议： 1、电商快递：继续强调"反内卷"下投资机会，后续进入"收入-业绩弹性" 验证期。1）继续重点推荐我们此前先后上调评级至"强推"的圆通与申通。 圆通速递：核心指标追近龙头，A 股电商快递中质地最优，且在行业增速放缓 下依然持续领跑行业；看好反内卷下业绩强弹性。申通快递：持续看好"反内 卷"下作为拐点型企业业绩弹性大，同时关注公司 11 月并表丹鸟业务，股东 方未来赋能或值得期待。2）继续推荐极兔速递：Q3 东南亚件量+79%，东南 亚高景气投资+"反内卷"有助于国内市场盈利稳定。3）推荐中通快递，估值 低位、一旦价格弹性启动，性价比高。 2、持续看好顺丰投资机会。我们认为公司三季度业绩系短期承压。1）总量看： "激活经营"机制有效推动公司业务规模扩张，亦有助于发挥网络规模效应， 为长期降本增效助力。2）收入结构看：公司三季报介绍，Q3 中高端时效业务 收入增速环比提升，服务客户规模持续扩大。3）三季度业绩承压主要因公司 采取积极主动的市场拓展策略与 ...

A month has gone by since the last earnings report for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) . Shares have added about 13% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.But investors have to be wondering, will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is ZTO Express Cayman due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at the most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers ...

【#顺丰主动放弃抖音电商退货业务#】据报道，知情人士透露，顺丰并未参与 2026 年抖音电商退货服 务，系其主动放弃该业务市场。后续，抖音电商退货履约将逐步由京东、中通、圆通等物流服务商承 接。行业分析指出，此次变化主要源于顺丰自身业务与战略调整，业务增长压力下，顺丰正持续收缩退 货业务。（36氪） ...

Key Takeaways ZTO benefits from upward EPS estimate revisions, with current-year forecasts raised over the past 60 days. ZTO shares jumped 12.1% in 90 days, easily outperforming the transportation services industry's gains. ZTO saw Q3 parcel volume rise 9.8% Y/Y, with express delivery revenues up 11.6%, lifting overall growth.ZTO Express Cayman (ZTO) is bolstered by its robust operational efficiency. The company’s strong liquidity is also encouraging. Due to these tailwinds, ZTO shares have performed impres ...

抖音退货又切换快递了。 12月16日起，京东物流、中通、圆通、邮政、韵达等多家快递公司，将在不同地区承担其退货业务。 数据显示，抖音电商日均退货量达数百万单，对于急需散单的快递企业来说，这是一块不小的市场蛋糕。面对逆向快递最大来源平台之一，各 大快递此次异常重视抖退业务，竞争也十分激烈。 对于新加入的快递企业而言，想要对标此前顺丰抖音退货"5分钟响应、一小时内核销取件码、当日发出"的服务标准，几乎难上加难。 01 亿豹网发现，在反内卷的大背景下，快递公司抢着做退货生意，核心就一个原因：这钱比正向件好赚多了。总部揽收一个电商件，利润为几分钱，有时甚 至亏钱，但揽收一个退货件，运费尽管一降再降，目前各个平台也有四五元左右，这种高附加值的业务，自然成了香饽饽。 此外，做好退货服务，能直接提升消费者体验，增强用户对快递品牌的粘性。像顺丰、京东物流都推出了专门的"网购退货"入口，还提供折扣和优惠，就 是为了在这个领域建立优势。 有数据显示，目前全国日均退货业务量超2000万件。在传统电商渠道增速放缓的情况下，退货业务作为一个新的增长点，能快速帮助快递公司开拓市场， 缓解业绩压力。 02 亿豹网了解到，抖音电商为提升用户 ...

Economic News - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third rate cut since 2025 [1] - Vietnam's National Assembly amended the mineral law to prohibit the export of rare earth ores starting January 1, 2026, emphasizing strict control over exploration and processing [1] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security held a seminar in collaboration with the International Labour Organization [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the importance of pilot innovation in manufacturing as a key link connecting innovation, technology, and industry [1] - The Ministry of Commerce plans to enhance policy support for the retail industry's innovation and transformation during the 15th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The Ministry of Commerce will work with local governments to implement policies to stabilize foreign trade and promote market diversification [1] - The China Textile Import and Export Chamber reported that yarn and fabric exports reached $69.18 billion from January to October 2025, a 2.1% year-on-year increase [1] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue special government bonds due in 2025, with a total face value of CNY 400 billion for the first phase and CNY 350 billion for the second phase [1] - The National Internet Information Office is conducting a special campaign to rectify online chaos in the automotive industry [1] - The Ministry of Education reported an increase in the number of students returning from studying abroad, with 495,000 expected to return in 2024, a 19.1% increase from 2023 [1] Company News - Pop Mart announced changes in its board of directors, with new appointments effective December 10, 2025 [4] - Kweichow Moutai announced a cash dividend of CNY 23.957 per share, totaling CNY 30 billion, with the ex-dividend date on December 19 [4] - Nanjing Highway plans to invest up to CNY 9.033 billion in the construction of the Nanyang Yangtze River Bridge southern connection project [4] - ZTE Corporation is in communication with the U.S. Department of Justice regarding compliance investigations related to the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act [4] - Oracle reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $16.1 billion, a 14% year-on-year increase, with cloud revenue of $8 billion, a 34% increase, but below market expectations [4] Transportation Industry - The transportation sector has shown signs of recovery, with the strong cycle sectors benefiting from anti-involution policies [5] - The focus for 2026 will remain on sectors benefiting from anti-involution and high certainty stocks, with a long-term impact expected from these policies [6] - The express delivery industry has seen a recovery in profitability, with rising prices and a reduction in low-price competition [7] - The airline sector has improved performance due to lower oil prices and better management of ticket pricing, with a cautious approach to aircraft procurement expected to continue [8] - The highway sector has experienced significant stock price adjustments, with a focus on high dividend yield and low debt ratio companies expected to gain more attention [9]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that domestic demand is recovering ahead of external demand, with a focus on low base effects in 2026, making bottomed-out sectors worth attention [3] - It highlights that upstream sectors are recovering before downstream sectors, with significant demand elasticity expected in early 2026, particularly in bulk supply chains and dry bulk shipping [3] - The report notes that price increases are anticipated before volume growth, with a focus on dry bulk shipping, e-commerce logistics, and airlines benefiting from supply constraints and favorable oil exchange rates [3] Industry Overview - The transportation sector ranked 29th in the market as of December 10, 2025, reflecting significant pressure on fundamentals, with a -1% performance in the Shenwan primary transportation index [18][19] - The report identifies structural opportunities in logistics and shipping, despite the overall economic cycle affecting the sector [20] - It indicates that the transportation sector's performance is closely tied to economic fundamentals, with a notable correlation between ROE and economic cycles [23] Sub-industry Analysis - In logistics, domestic demand is stabilizing while external trade remains robust, with expectations of price increases due to anti-involution policies [11][20] - The airline sector is experiencing improvements in supply and demand, with a focus on capturing opportunities in private airlines and airport duty-free consumption recovery [11][20] - The shipping sector, particularly dry bulk shipping, is highlighted as a cost-effective opportunity for 2026, driven by supply and demand dynamics [11][20] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategy of seeking alpha within beta, focusing on sectors with low beta characteristics that are expected to turn around in 2026 [11][20] - It emphasizes the importance of identifying individual stocks within the transportation sector that can outperform the broader market, given the anticipated recovery in demand [11][20] - The report outlines a cautious but optimistic outlook for 2026, with a focus on sectors that have shown resilience and potential for recovery [11][20]

Investors interested in stocks from the Transportation - Services sector have probably already heard of ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) and TFI International Inc. (TFII) . But which of these two companies is the best option for those looking for undervalued stocks? Let's take a closer look.We have found that the best way to discover great value opportunities is to pair a strong Zacks Rank with a great grade in the Value category of our Style Scores system. The Zacks Rank favors stocks with strong earnings e ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the perplexing logistics routes taken by express deliveries in China, highlighting a case where a package of lamb from Gansu to Chengdu took an indirect route via Nanjing, raising questions about efficiency and resource allocation in modern logistics [1][2][3]. Group 1: Logistics Operations - The delivery route for the lamb involved a journey of over 2900 kilometers instead of the direct 600 kilometers, illustrating a complex logistics operation that seems counterintuitive to consumers [1][2]. - The logistics process involves packages being routed through major hubs, such as Nanjing, which serves as a central distribution point for express deliveries in China [5][6]. - The "Y" shaped route taken by the package symbolizes the modern logistics challenges where consumers question the efficiency of such operations despite technological advancements [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Considerations - The logistics companies utilize an "axle-radial distribution model" to consolidate packages at central hubs, which helps in achieving economies of scale and reducing costs [6][7]. - The cost of shipping a single package is significantly higher when not consolidated, emphasizing the need for logistics companies to optimize routes for cost efficiency [8][9]. - The logistics industry's approach to routing is a calculated decision balancing cost, efficiency, and network stability, which may appear irrational to consumers but is strategically sound [7][8]. Group 3: Hub Selection and Strategy - Major logistics companies, including China Post and SF Express, have strategically chosen hub locations based on factors like traffic infrastructure, regional economic potential, and government planning [9][10]. - The establishment of logistics hubs in cities like Nanjing and Hubei is part of a broader national strategy to enhance logistics efficiency across the country [11][12]. - The future of logistics in China aims to create a more interconnected and efficient network that minimizes unnecessary detours while maximizing operational efficiency [12][13].