交通运输 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2026 年 3 月 15 日 强于大市 ①航空物流：波罗的海空运价格指数环比上升，同比下降。②航运港口：集运 运价指数上升，干散货运价上升，油运运价下降。③快递物流：2025 年 12 月快 递业务量同比上升 2.30%，快递业务收入同比上升 0.70%。④航空出行：2026 年 3 月第二周国际日均执飞航班 1750.29 次，环比-2.92%，同比+7.12%。⑤公路铁 路：3月2日—3月8日，全国高速公路货车通行4601.4万辆，环比增长40.64%。 ⑥交通新业态：2025 年 Q4，联想 PC 电脑出货量达 1944 万台，同比上升 14.30%，市场份额环比上升 1.7pct。 交通运输行业周报 曹操出行 Robotaxi 计划 2030 年投放 10 万辆，霍 尔木兹海峡船舶通行量仍处于低位水平 交通新业态方面，换电模式实现"省时省力省心多赚钱"，曹操出行 Robotaxi 车型 预装换电架构，计划 2030 年投放 10 万辆。低空经济方面，亿航智能预计 2026 年实 现全年 GAAP 盈利，订单、产能与盈利拐点共同验证 eVTOL 商业化推进。美 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 交通运输行业周报（20260309-20260315） 聚焦：中东冲突第二周，油轮运价回调但仍处 推荐（维持） 历史高位，集运运价上行 一、聚焦：中东冲突第二周，油轮运价回调但仍处历史高位，集运运价上行 1、霍尔木兹海峡通行情况：本周日均 5 艘船舶通行（冲突前为 125 艘），下降 95%；其中油轮日均通行 1 艘（冲突前为 40 艘），80%的通行船舶为出湾方向。 2、波斯湾原油生产及出口情况：沙特红海延布港为替代外运渠道，有望新增 300-400 万桶/日的外运量；此外，伊朗仍有 200 万桶/日的石油经霍尔木兹海 峡外运，阿联酋富查伊拉港、阿曼也各有约 100 万桶/日的石油外运。受储油 设施库容即将饱和影响，祖卢夫、萨法尼亚等主要油气田已暂停生产，目前约 有 1000 万桶/日的石油产量被迫下线。 3、油价与库存：本周布伦特原油期货价格大幅波动，周五收于 103.89 美元/ 桶，较 3 月 6 日上涨 11%；国际能源署周三宣布其 32 个成员国将协调释放 4 亿桶战略石油储备，相当于全球约 20 天消费量。 4、航运市场影响跟踪： 1）油运：运价回调，但仍处历史高位。克拉 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 中通快递-W（02057.HK）深度研究报告 强推（上调） 电商快递步入新阶段，中通料享龙头红利 ——大物流时代系列研究（三十） 电商快递步入新阶段：件量增速换挡，提质挺价优先，龙头份额提升。 1、数据特征显现行业正在发生重大变化： 1）件量：从高增长到个位数。2025 年前高后低，Q4 降至个位数增长，我们预计 26 年行业件量增速前低后高，保 持 8%左右的韧性增速。2）价格：自上而下旗帜鲜明反内卷。2025 年 7 月 8 日，国家邮政局党组召开会议，明确"防止内卷式恶性竞争"，8 月华南地区 率先提价。对比月度数据，25 年 12 月相较于 7 月单票价格均有显著修复（圆 通+0.17 元、韵达+0.24 元、申通+0.36 元）。3）行业格局：龙头份额持续提升， 行业分化日益显著。25Q4 公司市占率 19.6%，实现了 25 年首个季度市占率同 比提升及业务量增速跑赢行业。 2、我们判断电商快递行业正式步入了新阶段 1）逻辑一："反内卷"具备可持续性。我们从客户需求、监管要求、战略诉求 三个维度分析快递行业"反内卷"具备可持续性。a）客户需求：电商平台更 注重高质量发展，对 ...

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） 呈交日期： 2026年3月11日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) 02057 | 說明 A類普通股 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | | | | | | 事件 | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | 佔有關事件前的現有已發 | 庫存股份變動 | 每股發行/出售價 (註4) ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the transportation industry, indicating a positive outlook for specific sectors within the industry [3]. Core Insights - Geopolitical risk premiums are embedded in tanker freight rates, with a focus on the defensive value of dividend assets [1]. - The shipping market is under pressure due to escalating conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a tightening of the tanker market and increased freight rates [16]. - Infrastructure assets are expected to see valuation recovery, with a recommendation to select stocks that offer dividend benefits [19]. - The air travel sector is experiencing a growth trend in demand, but caution is advised regarding the impact of rising oil prices on profitability [25]. - The express delivery sector is showing signs of recovery in demand growth, with potential for valuation improvement as competition stabilizes [21]. Shipping Sector Summary - The shipping industry is experiencing a rise in freight rates due to geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, with specific routes seeing significant price increases [12][16]. - The SCFI index shows a weekly increase, with notable rises in rates for routes to the US and Europe [32]. - The report suggests focusing on shipping stocks such as COSCO Shipping Energy, COSCO Shipping Holdings, and others for potential investment opportunities [16]. Infrastructure Sector Summary - Weekly data indicates a significant increase in truck traffic, with a 229.7% week-on-week growth, although year-on-year comparisons show a decline [17][19]. - Port throughput has increased by 25.2% week-on-week, indicating a recovery trend despite a year-on-year decline [19]. - Recommended stocks in the infrastructure sector include Anhui Expressway, Tangshan Port, and Qingdao Port, which are seen as stable cash flow assets [19]. Express Delivery Sector Summary - The express delivery sector is witnessing a rebound in demand, with a 424.9% increase in collection volume week-on-week [21]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, suggesting that regulatory support may enhance price stability and improve stock performance for leading companies [21]. - Recommended stocks include Shentong Express, Yunda Express, and SF Express, which are expected to benefit from operational optimizations [21]. Aviation Sector Summary - The aviation sector is experiencing a growth in passenger volume, with a year-on-year increase of 27.5% during the Spring Festival period [25]. - However, rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions pose a risk to profitability, necessitating caution [25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring oil price trends and their potential impact on airline stocks [25].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry [2] Core Insights - The aviation sector is expected to see good growth in both volume and price during the Spring Festival travel season, with a projected increase in passenger load factor by over 2 percentage points year-on-year and a domestic ticket price increase of over 4% [4][5] - The oil shipping sector is experiencing significant profit increases due to geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TCE rates soaring to around $480,000, indicating a strong market outlook [5][21] - Policies aimed at boosting consumption and reducing competition in the logistics sector are expected to benefit the aviation and express delivery industries [5] Summary by Sections Aviation - The report highlights a 4.9% year-on-year increase in overall passenger flow during the first 33 days of the Spring Festival, with aviation specifically seeing a 6.4% increase [6][7] - The estimated domestic ticket prices are expected to rise by over 4% year-on-year, while the average domestic aviation fuel price has decreased by 8%, leading to improved profit margins for airlines [5] - The report anticipates a "super cycle" in aviation profitability driven by sustained demand and low supply growth, recommending stocks such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and Spring Airlines [5] Oil Shipping - The report notes that geopolitical risks have driven oil shipping rates to record highs, with a focus on the changes in the gray market and their long-term implications [5] - The TCE for VLCCs from the Middle East to China has surged, with significant shifts in demand towards other oil-producing regions due to reduced Middle Eastern exports [5] - The report suggests monitoring gray market developments, which could create unexpected supply-demand dynamics and accelerate the retirement of older vessels [5] Policy Impact - The report discusses how government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and addressing "involution" in competition will positively impact the aviation and express delivery sectors [5] - It predicts that the express delivery industry will see stable volume growth and price increases, benefiting leading companies like ZTO Express and SF Express [5] - The report also emphasizes the potential for healthy growth in cross-border logistics driven by supportive policies [5]

| 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | USD | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints On February 25, affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market showed a tight balance, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted, the main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance, individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing the importance of Sino - German relations [3] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose 93 basis points, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed 177 basis points higher [3] - Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Property Market", further reducing housing purchase restrictions [4] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced the 2026/27 budget, stating Hong Kong's plans to cooperate with the mainland on financial development [4] 3.1.2 International News - The US Trade Representative said the "global import tariff" rate on some countries might rise from 10% to 15% or higher [5] 3.1.3 Commodities - WTI April crude oil futures fell 0.32%, Brent April crude oil futures rose 0.11%, spot gold rose 0.52%, and a technical glitch at CME interrupted natural gas and metal futures trading [6] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations On February 25, the central bank conducted 409.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.5 billion yuan after 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [8] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates Affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market was in a tight balance. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.384%, and DR007 rose 4.79bp to 1.507%. Other interest rates also showed various changes [9][10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Due to the stock market rise and rumors about Shanghai's real estate, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 rose 1.40bp, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 1.35bp [12] - Multiple bonds were issued, with details such as issue scale, winning bid yield, and multiples provided [13] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Five industrial bonds had a trading price deviation of over 10%, with some falling and one rising significantly [13] - Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as debt transfer, extension of consent solicitation period, and being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - The A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market fluctuated narrowly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose, while the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell slightly. Individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses [17] - Some convertible bonds had significant price changes, and there were events such as new listings, proposed downward adjustment of the conversion price, and early redemption announcements [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, except for the 5 - year Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of other maturities generally rose. The yield spreads of some maturities narrowed, and the break - even inflation rate of 10 - year TIPS rose [22][23][24] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds were provided, with some rising and some falling [27]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） 呈交日期： 2026年3月2日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02057 | 說明 | A類普通股 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The military strike by the US against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have profound impacts on the global oil transportation market, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and increased oil transportation costs [3][15] - Tesla's Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, has been launched, marking a significant step towards the original dedicated era of Robotaxi services [3][17] - A strategic partnership between Youjia Innovation, Didi, and Wall Street Technology aims to advance the large-scale deployment of driverless logistics vehicles, filling a market gap for vehicle-grade autonomous logistics [3][32] - The pre-sale ticket prices for economy class flights during the 2026 Spring Festival have shown a year-on-year increase, indicating stable industry performance as demand is released [3][34] - Uber has launched the Uber Air service supported by Joby, integrating ground and air travel booking, which validates the commercial viability of eVTOL [3][41] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, while domestic air freight flights have seen a decline [4][44] - The shipping and port sector has experienced an increase in domestic shipping rates, while dry bulk freight rates have also risen [4][52] - The express logistics sector reported a 2.30% year-on-year increase in business volume and a 0.70% increase in revenue as of December 2025 [4] - The average number of international flights operated daily in the last week of February 2026 was 1992.86, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.73% and a year-on-year increase of 19.22% [4] - The number of trucks passing through national highways decreased by 40.04% from February 9 to February 15 [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly oil transportation, dry bulk, and container shipping due to geopolitical tensions, with recommendations for China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [5] - Consider investments in low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter and monitoring Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the travel sector driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [5] - Look into international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Pay attention to investment opportunities in the highway sector, recommending Sichuan Chengyu Expressway and other major expressway companies [5]