证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 油轮制裁力度仍在加大，2025 年快递业务量同比增长 13.6% 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 本周关注：航运方面，本周油运运价延续高位，散货运价好转；基础设施方面， 优选个股布局红利资产；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势；快递方面， 关注 26 年行业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | 王春环 | S1090524060003 | wangchunhuan@cmschina.com.c | | --- | --- | --- | | n | 孙修远 | S1090524070005 | | sunxiuyuan@cmschina.com.cn | 肖欣晨 | S1090522010001 | | xiaoxinchen@cmschina.com.cn | 刘若琮 | S1090524110003 | | liuruocong@cmschina.com.cn | 张瑜玲 | S1090525060006 | | zhangyuling2@cmschina.com.cn | | | | | | 占比% | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the shipping industry, recommending companies such as China Merchants Energy and COSCO Shipping Energy [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights a significant increase in charter rates for VLCCs, which rose by 4.62% to $62,250 per day, and Cape rates increased by 5.37% to $26,475 per day, indicating a strong correlation between commodity prices and shipping rates [3]. - New ship prices are rising alongside second-hand ship prices, with the new ship composite index increasing by 0.07 to 184.76 points, suggesting a favorable market for shipbuilders [3]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the shipping market, particularly in oil and bulk shipping, with expectations of continued demand driven by geopolitical factors and commodity price fluctuations [3]. Summary by Sections Shipping Market Performance - The shipping index increased by 1.76%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.38 percentage points [4]. - The coastal dry bulk freight index in China rose by 0.84%, while the Shanghai export container freight index fell by 7.39% [4]. Oil Shipping - VLCC rates are currently around $100,000 per day, with a recent decline of 11% in average rates to $105,090 per day, indicating potential volatility in the market [3]. - The report notes that while VLCC rates may adjust, smaller oil tanker rates remain supported due to high demand [3]. Dry Bulk Shipping - The report indicates a rebound in dry bulk rates, particularly driven by increased grain exports from South America, with the BDI index recording a 12.4% increase [3]. - Capesize rates increased by 16.1%, reflecting strong demand in the Pacific market [3]. Container Shipping - The report observes a seasonal decline in container shipping rates as the peak season ends, with the SCFI index dropping by 7.4% [3]. - The resumption of services in the Red Sea has been noted, but the market remains cautious due to geopolitical uncertainties [3]. Air Transportation - The report highlights a significant supply constraint in aircraft manufacturing, with an aging fleet and increasing passenger demand expected to enhance airline profitability [3]. - Airlines are recommended for investment due to their strong demand elasticity and potential for significant earnings growth [3]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The report anticipates a concentration of market share and profits among leading express delivery companies, with a focus on ZTO Express and YTO Express [3]. - The logistics sector shows resilience, with steady growth in freight volumes reported [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express maintains significant competitive advantages, including leading market share, superior network operational capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO's strategy of "pursuing both volume and quality" is expected to enhance its market share as the demand structure in the express delivery industry optimizes due to price increases and e-commerce taxation [3] - Long-term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is anticipated to develop a diversified service system, leading to improved profitability [3] Summary by Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits [1] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the industry through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network services in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery fee model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Company Highlights - ZTO Express's competitive advantages remain strong, with expectations for continued market share growth and an optimized competitive landscape [3] - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% [3][5] - The current stock price is considered to be at a low point, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, respectively, indicating significant long-term investment value [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for ZTO Express is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that ZTO Express has a significant competitive advantage, primarily due to its leading market share, superior network management capabilities, brand premium, stronger stability among franchisees, and robust financial strength [3][14] - In the short to medium term, ZTO is expected to maintain its "quantity and quality" strategy, which, along with price increases and reduced low-cost packages, will optimize the demand structure in the express delivery industry, leading to a continuous increase in market share [3] - In the long term, as the competitive landscape stabilizes, ZTO is likely to develop a diversified service system, enhancing its profitability [3] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Development Review - The express delivery demand in China has transitioned from rapid growth to steady growth, with the volume expected to increase from 2.34 billion pieces in 2010 to 199 billion pieces by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34.5% [1][34] - The competitive landscape has returned to rationality, with price competition being controlled within reasonable limits due to policies aimed at high-quality development [1][52] Company Development Review - ZTO Express has distinguished itself in the competitive landscape through innovative models and strategic foresight, becoming the first private express company to open inter-provincial network buses in 2005 and implementing a paid delivery model in 2007 [2] - The company has consistently led in investments in resources such as trunk vehicles and automation equipment, establishing a virtuous cycle of scale, cost, profit, and quality [2] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The report projects ZTO Express's net profit for 2025-2027 to be 9.48 billion, 10.59 billion, and 11.78 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 7.5%, 11.7%, and 11.2% respectively [3][5] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12X and 11X for 2026 and 2027, indicating that the stock is still at a low valuation level [3][6]

2026年春节来临之际，一批"新员工"成为快递网点的得力干将。1月22日，北京商报记者从多位快递从 业者获悉，为了应对年货节礼盒等重货激增以及春节经营成本高企等问题，部分快递网点投入无人车协 助快递员作业，将派件时间缩短超3个小时，运输成本下降五成。无人车或将成为快递企业应对春节压 力的新解法。 当前，极兔、中通、京东物流等多家企业加速无人车的规模性应用，使用场景覆盖产业带、园区和校 园。有无人车企业预计，2026年春节期间，无人车配送将活跃于快递、商超、医药等民生行业。 礼盒年货占比上升 春节临近，快递网点的压力只增不减。在极兔张家口沽源县领先网点，负责人李小双正在为年货节促销 忙碌着。在平日，网点的日均件量在6000票左右。今年年货节，李小双预计网点日均可能会增长1000票 左右，重货、大公斤包裹增量明显。 江西中通南昌县二部网点的一位负责人也深有同感。他向北京商报记者表示，相比往年，今年年货节有 两个明显特点，"一是峰值更平、周期更长，使得货量高峰从以往的'尖峰'变为'高原'，持续压力更大； 二是品类更杂、体积更大，生鲜年货、礼盒箱装的占比显著增加，对网点运输的承载力和灵活性提出了 更高要求"。 当前， ...

礼盒年货占比上升 春节临近，快递网点的压力只增不减。在极兔张家口沽源县领先网点，负责人李小双正为年货节促销忙 碌着。在平日，该网点日均件量约6000票。今年年货节，李小双预计网点日均可能会增长约1000票，重 货、大公斤包裹增量明显。 江西中通南昌县二部网点的一位负责人也深有同感。他向北京商报记者表示，相比往年，今年年货节有 两个明显特点：一是峰值更平、周期更长，使得货量高峰从以往的"尖峰"变为"高原"，持续压力更大； 二是品类更杂、体积更大，生鲜年货、礼盒箱装的占比显著增加，对网点运输的承载力和灵活性提出更 高要求。 当前，各大电商平台纷纷蓄力年货节，淘天、抖音在1月初抢跑促销，京东年货节则将于1月25日20时开 启，电商年货节将贯穿整个1月。这意味着，快递网点既要迎战年货节促销高峰，还要提前规划春节期 间的人员、车辆等安排。 为了应对繁重的工作，此次年货节，江西中通南昌县二部网点采取"人车协同、弹性调度"策略，20辆无 人车派上用场。据了解，这些无人车单次满载能运输1000件快递，主要承担网点到驿站、快递门店的短 驳中转运输任务。在上午出货的高峰时段，无人车加密频次至半小时发车后，既能较快"清空"网点，还 ...

Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the "long context," investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.Even ...

2026年春节即将来临，一批"新员工"将成为快递网点的得力干将。1月22日，北京商报记者从多位快递 从业者处获悉，为了应对年货节礼盒等重货激增以及春节经营成本高企等问题，部分快递网点投入无人 车协助快递员作业，将派件时间缩短超3小时，运输成本下降五成。无人车或将成为快递企业应对春节 压力的新解法。 当前，极兔、中通、京东物流等多家企业加速无人车的规模化应用，使用场景覆盖产业带、园区和校 园。有无人车企业预计，2026年春节期间，无人车配送将活跃于快递、商超、医药等民生行业。 江西中通南昌县二部网点的一位负责人也深有同感。他向北京商报记者表示，相比往年，今年年货节有 两个明显特点：一是峰值更平、周期更长，使得货量高峰从以往的"尖峰"变为"高原"，持续压力更大； 二是品类更杂、体积更大，生鲜年货、礼盒箱装的占比显著增加，对网点运输的承载力和灵活性提出更 高要求。 当前，各大电商平台纷纷蓄力年货节，淘天、抖音在1月初抢跑促销，京东年货节则将于1月25日20时开 启，电商年货节将贯穿整个1月。这意味着，快递网点既要迎战年货节促销高峰，还要提前规划春节期 间的人员、车辆等安排。 为了应对繁重的工作，此次年货节，江西中通 ...

2026年春节来临之际，一批"新员工"成为快递网点的得力干将。1月22日，北京商报记者从多位快递从业者获悉，为了应对年货节礼盒等重货激增以及春节 经营成本高企等问题，部分快递网点投入无人车协助快递员作业，将派件时间缩短超3个小时，运输成本下降五成。无人车或将成为快递企业应对春节压力 的新解法。 当前，极兔、中通、京东物流等多家企业加速无人车的规模性应用，使用场景覆盖产业带、园区和校园。有无人车企业预计，2026年春节期间，无人车配送 将活跃于快递、商超、医药等民生行业。 礼盒年货占比上升 春节临近，快递网点的压力只增不减。在极兔张家口沽源县领先网点，负责人李小双正在为年货节促销忙碌着。在平日，网点的日均件量在6000票左右。今 年年货节，李小双预计网点日均可能会增长1000票左右，重货、大公斤包裹增量明显。 江西中通南昌县二部网点的一位负责人也深有同感。他向北京商报记者表示，相比往年，今年年货节有两个明显特点，"一是峰值更平、周期更长，使得货 量高峰从以往的'尖峰'变为'高原'，持续压力更大；二是品类更杂、体积更大，生鲜年货、礼盒箱装的占比显著增加，对网点运输的承载力和灵活性提出了 更高要求"。 当前，各大电 ...

Investors might want to bet on ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) , as it has been recently upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy). This upgrade is essentially a reflection of an upward trend in earnings estimates -- one of the most powerful forces impacting stock prices.The sole determinant of the Zacks rating is a company's changing earnings picture. The Zacks Consensus Estimate -- the consensus of EPS estimates from the sell-side analysts covering the stock -- for the current and following years is tracke ...