中通快递(ZTO.US)盘前一度涨超2.5%，报19.57美元。消息面上，东兴证券近期发布研报指，中通快递 作为通达系龙头的地位稳固，能够在价格战中维持相对稳定的盈利水平，具备较强的安全边际，维持公 司"强烈推荐"评级。该行预计下半年行业及公司盈利情况将有好转。随着反内卷环境的形成，公司调整 业务量指引，并将战略重心转向质量优先，预计下半年的增量激励会有所下调，激励的流向也会更加合 理，虽然业务量增速中枢预计会有所下降，但单票盈利水平会相应回升。(格隆汇) ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 9 月 17 日星期三 经济要闻 1. 财政部：于 2025 年 9 月 16 日开展了国债做市支持操作。操作方向为随 卖，操作券种为 2025 年记账式附息(十一期)国债、2025 年记账式附息(十四 期)国债，中标价格分别为 98.68 元、99.69 元，收益率分别为 1.82%、1.62%。 （资料来源：同花顺） 2. 商务部：商务部等 9 部门 9 月 16 日对外发布《关于扩大服务消费的若 干政策措施》。提出五方面 19 条举措，包括开展"服务消费季"系列促消费 活动，支持优质消费资源与知名 IP 跨界合作，因地制宜延长热门文博场馆、 景区营业时间，优化预约方式，鼓励推行免预约，优化学生假期安排，完善 配套政策等，增加优质服务供给，更好满足人民群众多样化服务消费需求。 （资料来源：同花顺） 数据来源：《九月金股汇》 2025 年 08 月 28 日，东兴证券研究所 东 兴 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 3. 外交部：国家副主席韩正将于 9 月 17 日出席在广西南宁举行的第 22 届 中国—东盟博览会暨中国—东盟商务与投资峰会开幕式并致辞。缅甸总理纽 ...

东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 2025 年 9 月 15 日星期一 经济要闻 1. 国家统计局：发布的最新数据显示，前 8 个月主要生产、需求指标保持 平稳增长，规模以上工业增加值、服务业生产指数、社会消费品零售总额、 货物进出口增速与 1 至 7 月基本相当。经济增长"稳"没有改变。从 8 月当 月数据看，规模以上工业增加值，服务业生产指数等数据的同比增速较 7 月 略有回落。国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，从下阶段情况来看，我国经 济长期向好的支撑条件和基本趋势没有变，宏观政策发力显效，改革开放持 续深化，国内国际双循环逐步畅通，将支撑经济平稳运行和向好发展。（资料 来源：同花顺） 2. 国家统计局：数据显示，1-8 月份，全国城镇调查失业率平均值为 5.2%。 8 月份，全国城镇调查失业率为 5.3%，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，与上年同 月持平。本地户籍劳动力调查失业率为 5.4%；外来户籍劳动力调查失业率为 5.0%，其中外来农业户籍劳动力调查失业率为 4.7%。31 个大城市城镇调查失 业率为 5.3%，比上月上升 0.1 个百分点，比上年同月下降 0.1 个百分点。全 国企业就业人员周平均工 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the transportation industry [11]. Core Insights - VLCC freight rates have reached a new high since March 2023, driven by limited supply and OPEC's production increase, indicating a tight oil tanker supply-demand situation [6][20]. - The express delivery sector is experiencing a nationwide price increase trend, with a significant recovery in profitability expected in Q4 2025 [7][39]. Summary by Sections Oil Tankers - VLCC freight rates have surged, with a notable increase of 39.3% to 78k USD/day, reflecting a tight supply situation due to limited new ship deliveries and stringent sanctions [9][20]. - The correlation between VLCC freight rates and annual profits of Zhongyuan Shipping indicates potential for price recovery in the sector [6][36]. - OPEC's production policy shift has led to increased exports, further supporting oil transportation demand [28][32]. Express Delivery - The regulatory stance against "involution" in the express delivery sector has strengthened, leading to a nationwide price increase that began as regional trials [51][52]. - The average price across the country has risen by 0.23 RMB since July, with potential net profit increases for major companies like Zhongtong and Yunda expected in Q4 2025 [7][53]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in profitability for major express delivery companies, with projected net profit increases of 7.8 billion RMB for Zhongtong and 5.3 billion RMB for Yunda by Q4 2025 [7][56]. Passenger Transport - Domestic passenger transport volume has shown improvement, with a 8% year-on-year increase in domestic passenger volume and a 14% increase in international passenger volume [61]. - The average domestic passenger load factor has improved by 3.2 percentage points, while international load factors have increased by 4.0 percentage points [67]. - Despite a slight decline in ticket prices, the overall market is expected to see marginal improvements in revenue as demand continues to recover [67][75].

业务量增速略低于行业均值，25 年业务量指引有所下调：Q2 公司业务量增速为16.5%，略低于行业均 值的17.3%，故市场份额下降0.1pct 至19.5%。考虑到行业包裹结构持续向低单价业务倾斜，公司在平衡 份额与质量的情况下能够实现接近行业均值的增速尤为不易。下半年在综合考虑当前经济、竞争及政策 环境构成的新格局后，公司强调长期坚持质量优先，并下调了全年的业务量指引至388-401 亿件，对应 业务量同比增长14%-18%（原为408-422 亿件，对应同比增长20-24%）。考虑到当前反内卷格局下，低 价倾销被压制，行业增速出现整体性下降，下调业务量指引较为合理。 单票收入下降0.06 元，KA 客户单价提升对冲增量激励影响：公司Q2 单票收入由去年同期的1.24 元降 至1.18 元，降幅不大，但收入结构的变化较为明显。其中单票收入下降的因素主要是因为单票增量激励 增加0.18 元（行业激烈的价格竞争导致的收入下降）和单票平均重量下降影响0.05 元。单票收入提升的 因素主要是KA 客户占比提升导致单票收入提升0.17 元，这主要是源于公司加大了散件和逆向件的业务 规模。可以看出公司同样受到行业激烈 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Dongxing Securities maintains a "strong buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057), projecting net profits for the parent company to be 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [1] - ZTO Express, as a leader in the Tongda system, is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit level during price wars, indicating a strong margin of safety [1] - In the second quarter, ZTO Express achieved a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.5%, with a market share of 19.5% [1] Group 2 - The adjusted net profit for Q2 was 2.053 billion [1] - The report anticipates an improvement in the profitability of the industry and the company in the second half of the year, as the environment shifts away from excessive competition [1] - The company is adjusting its business volume guidance and shifting its strategic focus to prioritize quality, expecting a reduction in incremental incentives for the second half, while the profitability per package is expected to rebound [1]

公司发布2025中报，二季度单季公司完成业务量98.47亿件，同比增长16.5%，市场份额19.5%。公司Q2 调整后净利润20.53亿元。该行预计下半年行业及公司盈利情况将有好转。随着反内卷环境的形成，公 司调整业务量指引，并将战略重心转向质量优先，预计下半年的增量激励会有所下调，激励的流向也会 更加合理，虽然业务量增速中枢预计会有所下降，但单票盈利水平会相应回升。 智通财经APP获悉，东兴证券发布研报称，维持中通快递-W(02057)"强烈推荐"评级，预计公司2025- 2027年归母净利润分别为88.5、102.2与115.3亿，对应PE分别为13.0X、11.2X和10.0X。公司作为通达系 龙头的地位稳固，能够在价格战中维持相对稳定的盈利水平，具备较强的安全边际。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for ZTO Express [5][9]. Core Views - The company reported a Q2 net profit of 2.053 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 26.8%, with a business volume of 9.847 billion pieces, representing a 16.5% increase year-on-year [1]. - The company has adjusted its full-year business volume guidance to 38.8-40.1 billion pieces, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14%-18%, down from the previous guidance of 40.8-42.2 billion pieces [1]. - The report highlights that the company is focusing on quality over quantity in a competitive pricing environment, which has led to a decrease in market share by 0.1 percentage points to 19.5% [1]. Summary by Sections Business Performance - In Q2, the company's single-ticket revenue decreased from 1.24 yuan to 1.18 yuan, primarily due to increased incentives and a decline in average weight [2]. - The single-ticket core cost increased by 8.6% year-on-year to 0.89 yuan, while the core cost (transportation + sorting) decreased by 0.07 yuan [2][3]. - The single-ticket gross profit fell from 0.42 yuan to 0.29 yuan, indicating significant pressure from pricing competition [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 8.85 billion, 10.22 billion, and 11.53 billion yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.0X, 11.2X, and 10.0X [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a relatively stable profit level despite the ongoing price wars, indicating strong safety margins [4]. Company Overview - ZTO Express is a large group company that integrates express delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and printing services, operating a highly scalable network partner model [6]. - The total market capitalization is approximately 120.778 billion HKD, with a circulating market value of 89.595 billion HKD [6].

Core Viewpoint - The logistics industry is experiencing a price increase trend since July and August, with approximately 80% of the national market share in provinces that have announced price hikes, indicating a potential recovery in performance for franchisees and listed companies [1][3][4]. Group 1: Price Adjustment Trends - Starting from August 4, Guangdong initiated collective price hikes, with the price for a 0.1kg special item rising to over 1.4 yuan per ticket, aiming to stabilize market shares [2]. - By August 11, Zhejiang and Jiangsu began adjusting prices, with increases of 0.3 yuan per ticket in Zhejiang and 0.4 yuan in Jiangsu, contributing to 16.9% and 7.9% of the national express delivery volume respectively [2]. - On August 20, Fujian issued price increase notices, setting a minimum price of 1.5 yuan for packages under 0.3kg, with a total volume of 32.6 billion items in the first half of 2025, accounting for 3.4% of the national total [2]. Group 2: Regional Price Adjustments - By September 4, regions including Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Henan began to follow suit with price increases, with Henan raising all outbound express prices by 0.2 yuan per ticket [3]. - The Hebei and Henan provinces are significant players in the express delivery market, contributing 6.0% and 5.7% to the national volume respectively [3]. - Shandong's YTO Express updated its pricing parameters, automatically increasing all outbound express prices by 0.2 yuan, reflecting the importance of price adjustments in the northern e-commerce market [3]. Group 3: Industry Outlook and Performance Recovery - The ongoing price adjustments are seen as a response to cost pressures and a step towards establishing a long-term mechanism against "involution" in the industry [3]. - Based on the price increase trend, the industry is expected to continue raising prices, leading to potential performance recovery for franchisees and listed companies as the peak season in September approaches [4]. - According to estimates, a price increase of 0.1 yuan could lead to an increase in net profit per ticket for listed companies, with varying price elasticity among major players like Zhongtong, YTO, and Shentong [4]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - In the context of the "anti-involution" policy, despite the overall pressure on the express delivery sector in the first half of 2025, there is optimism for performance recovery in the short term due to price stabilization and improved competitive dynamics [5]. - Companies such as Jitu Express, Shentong Express, YTO Express, and Zhongtong Express are recommended for investment, with expectations of performance recovery driven by price adjustments and market share growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reiterates that "anti-involution" will be the thematic trade for the Chinese market over the next 18 to 24 months, with a broader scope than the previous supply-side reform [1] Group 1: Policy Insights - The "anti-involution" policy closely resembles the 2021 regulatory approach aimed at preventing disorderly capital expansion, but it has a wider range, focusing on streamlining local government endorsements and investment subsidies [1] - Three industrial ecosystems are affected by this policy, with renewable energy stocks prioritized due to their superior revenue structure compared to real estate and macro stocks, and stronger policy enforcement compared to e-commerce stocks [1] Group 2: Market Implications - The "anti-involution" policy is crucial for the Chinese stock market, as higher ROI is a prerequisite for the institutionalization process and market expansion of onshore stocks, benefiting large industry leaders [1] - A list of preferred Chinese stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" policy includes Daqo New Energy, Hengli Petrochemical, CATL, Zhongsheng Holdings, Baosteel, SF Holding, GAC Group, PetroChina, and ZTO Express [1]