证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 08 日 地缘风险溢价嵌入油轮运价体系，关注红利资产防御价值 招商交通运输行业周报 周期/交通运输 推荐（维持） 行业规模 相关报告 1、《招商交通运输行业周报—美以 伊爆发军事冲突，油轮市场紧张程度 急剧上升（20260301）》2026-03-02 本周关注：航运方面，地缘风险溢价嵌入油轮运价体系；基础设施方面，HALO 资产估值修复、优选个股布局红利；航空方面，关注 26 年行业基本面上行趋势； 快递方面，关注 26 年行业竞争格局和估值修复潜力。 ❑ 物流：本周 TAC 上海出境空运价格指数周环比+0.3%，同比+8.8%。 ❑ 风险提示：人民币大幅贬值、油价大幅上涨、快递价格战恶化、重大海上安 全事故、重大自然灾害等。 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 129 | 2.5 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 3299.5 | 2.9 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 3097.3 | 3.0 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 2.7 9.3 19.2 相对表现 2.3 4.8 1.4 ...

两会政策利好航空快递，关注油运灰色市场变化 [Table_Industry] 运输 ——国泰海通交运周观察 | | | [Table_Invest] 评级： 增持 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 岳鑫(分析师) | 0755-23976758 | yuexin@gtht.com | S0880514030006 | | 虞楠(分析师) | 021-23219382 | yunan@gtht.com | S0880525040110 [Table_subIndustry] | | 陈亦凡(研究助理) | 0755-23976151 | chenyifan2@gtht.com | S0880124070025 | 本报告导读： 航空：春运量价增长良好，26Q1盈利可期。继续看好超级周期，建议关注地缘油价 逆向布局时机。油运：26Q1 油轮盈利大增，关注中东格局与灰色市场变化。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 运输《件量延续高增态势，价格进入企稳通道》 2026.03.05 运输《中蒙物流：朔气 ...

| 3. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | 其他類別 (請註明) | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | 未指定 | | | | 2. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | B | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | 否 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 證券代號 (如上市) | N/A | 說明 | B類普通股 | | | | | | | | 法定/註冊股份數目 | | 面值 | | 法定/註冊股本 | | | 上月底結存 | | | 1,000,000,000 USD | | 0.0001 USD | | 100,000 | | 增加 / 減少 (-) | | | | | USD | | | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | | 於香港聯交所上市 (註1) | | 是 | | | --- | --- | --- ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints On February 25, affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market showed a tight balance, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted, the main indices of the convertible bond market showed mixed performance, individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses, yields of US Treasury bonds across various maturities generally increased, and the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Bond Market News 3.1.1 Domestic News - President Xi Jinping met with German Chancellor Merz, emphasizing the importance of Sino - German relations [3] - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar rose 93 basis points, and the on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed 177 basis points higher [3] - Shanghai issued the "Seven Measures for the Property Market", further reducing housing purchase restrictions [4] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Paul Chan announced the 2026/27 budget, stating Hong Kong's plans to cooperate with the mainland on financial development [4] 3.1.2 International News - The US Trade Representative said the "global import tariff" rate on some countries might rise from 10% to 15% or higher [5] 3.1.3 Commodities - WTI April crude oil futures fell 0.32%, Brent April crude oil futures rose 0.11%, spot gold rose 0.52%, and a technical glitch at CME interrupted natural gas and metal futures trading [6] 3.2 Capital Market 3.2.1 Open - Market Operations On February 25, the central bank conducted 409.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 9.5 billion yuan after 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured [8] 3.2.2 Capital Interest Rates Affected by the tax period and month - end factors, the capital market was in a tight balance. DR001 rose 1.66bp to 1.384%, and DR007 rose 4.79bp to 1.507%. Other interest rates also showed various changes [9][10] 3.3 Bond Market Dynamics 3.3.1 Interest - Rate Bonds - Due to the stock market rise and rumors about Shanghai's real estate, the bond market fluctuated and adjusted. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond 250022 rose 1.40bp, and the yield of the 10 - year CDB bond active bond 250220 rose 1.35bp [12] - Multiple bonds were issued, with details such as issue scale, winning bid yield, and multiples provided [13] 3.3.2 Credit Bonds - Five industrial bonds had a trading price deviation of over 10%, with some falling and one rising significantly [13] - Multiple credit - related events occurred, such as debt transfer, extension of consent solicitation period, and being listed as a dishonest被执行人 [16] 3.3.3 Convertible Bonds - The A - share market rose, and the convertible bond market fluctuated narrowly. The CSI Convertible Bond Index and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rose, while the Shanghai Convertible Bond Index fell slightly. Individual convertible bonds were evenly split between gains and losses [17] - Some convertible bonds had significant price changes, and there were events such as new listings, proposed downward adjustment of the conversion price, and early redemption announcements [21] 3.3.4 Overseas Bond Markets - In the US bond market, except for the 5 - year Treasury bond yield remaining unchanged, yields of other maturities generally rose. The yield spreads of some maturities narrowed, and the break - even inflation rate of 10 - year TIPS rose [22][23][24] - In the European bond market, the yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies showed divergent trends [25] - The daily price changes of Chinese - funded US dollar bonds were provided, with some rising and some falling [27]

FF305 翌日披露報表 (股份發行人 ── 已發行股份或庫存股份變動、股份購回及/或在場内出售庫存股份) 表格類別： 股票 狀態： 新提交 公司名稱： 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） 呈交日期： 2026年3月2日 如上市發行人的已發行股份或庫存股份出現變動而須根據《香港聯合交易所有限公司（「香港聯交所」）證券上市規則》(「《主板上市規則》」)第13.25A條 / 《香港聯合交易所有限公司GEM證券 上市規則》(「《GEM上市規則》」)第17.27A條作出披露，必須填妥第一章節 。 | 第一章節 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1. 股份分類 | 不同投票權架構公司普通股 | 股份類別 | A | | 於香港聯交所上市 | 是 | | | 證券代號 (如上市) | 02057 | 說明 | A類普通股 | | | | | | A. 已發行股份或庫存股份變動 | | 已發行股份（不包括庫存股份）變動 | | | 庫存股份變動 | | | | | 事件 | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the transportation industry as "Outperform" [2] Core Insights - The military strike by the US against Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have profound impacts on the global oil transportation market, potentially leading to supply chain disruptions and increased oil transportation costs [3][15] - Tesla's Cybercab, designed for fully autonomous driving, has been launched, marking a significant step towards the original dedicated era of Robotaxi services [3][17] - A strategic partnership between Youjia Innovation, Didi, and Wall Street Technology aims to advance the large-scale deployment of driverless logistics vehicles, filling a market gap for vehicle-grade autonomous logistics [3][32] - The pre-sale ticket prices for economy class flights during the 2026 Spring Festival have shown a year-on-year increase, indicating stable industry performance as demand is released [3][34] - Uber has launched the Uber Air service supported by Joby, integrating ground and air travel booking, which validates the commercial viability of eVTOL [3][41] Industry Dynamics - The Baltic Air Freight Price Index has decreased month-on-month and year-on-year, while domestic air freight flights have seen a decline [4][44] - The shipping and port sector has experienced an increase in domestic shipping rates, while dry bulk freight rates have also risen [4][52] - The express logistics sector reported a 2.30% year-on-year increase in business volume and a 0.70% increase in revenue as of December 2025 [4] - The average number of international flights operated daily in the last week of February 2026 was 1992.86, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 3.73% and a year-on-year increase of 19.22% [4] - The number of trucks passing through national highways decreased by 40.04% from February 9 to February 15 [4] Investment Recommendations - Focus on opportunities in the shipping sector, particularly oil transportation, dry bulk, and container shipping due to geopolitical tensions, with recommendations for China Merchants Energy Shipping and COSCO Shipping [5] - Consider investments in low-altitude economy and autonomous driving sectors, recommending CITIC Offshore Helicopter and monitoring Cao Cao Mobility [5] - Explore investment opportunities in the travel sector driven by increased demand during the Spring Festival, recommending Air China, China Southern Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines [5] - Look into international market expansion opportunities in express logistics, recommending SF Express and Jitu Express [5] - Pay attention to investment opportunities in the highway sector, recommending Sichuan Chengyu Expressway and other major expressway companies [5]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the shipping sector, particularly highlighting the strong performance of oil tankers and dry bulk carriers, with specific recommendations for companies like China Shipping and China Power [4][5]. Core Insights - The shipping industry is experiencing an upward cycle driven by the entire energy chain, with oil tanker rates significantly increasing due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. The VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) rates have surged to $206,763 per day, marking a 38% increase week-on-week [4]. - The report emphasizes the potential for further increases in shipping rates, particularly in the context of ongoing geopolitical conflicts and the tightening of shipping capacity controlled by major players like Sinokor [4][5]. - Recommendations include focusing on long-cycle shipping logic with lower volatility, while also considering mid-cycle shipping stocks that are expected to outperform [4]. Summary by Sections Shipping Sector - VLCC rates have reached $206,763 per day, with a 38% week-on-week increase, driven by tight supply and geopolitical tensions [4]. - The report notes that the market is entering a strong pricing phase for shipowners, with Sinokor controlling over 37% of the market capacity [4]. - Suezmax rates have also increased significantly, reflecting the overall bullish sentiment in the oil shipping market [4]. Dry Bulk Sector - The Capesize index remains high, with a slight increase in rates, while smaller vessels are showing resilience due to recovering coal demand [4]. - The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) recorded a 1.09% increase, indicating stable demand in the dry bulk market [5]. Container Shipping - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) rose by 6.5%, with significant increases in rates for routes to the Mediterranean and South America [4]. - The report highlights potential risks associated with geopolitical tensions affecting shipping routes, particularly in the Red Sea [4]. Air Transport - The report discusses the ongoing challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply and enhance profitability for airlines [4]. - Airlines are anticipated to experience a significant improvement in performance as demand for international travel increases [4]. Logistics and Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is expected to see a recovery in pricing due to policy changes aimed at stabilizing end-user costs, with a focus on leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express [4]. - The report notes that the logistics sector is showing resilience, with steady performance in rail and highway freight volumes [4].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the express delivery industry, particularly the performance and pricing strategies of major players like YTO Express and Zhongtong Express [1][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Resilience in Off-Peak Season**: It is anticipated that prices will maintain resilience during the off-peak season, with a significant year-on-year increase expected to translate into profits. The probability of a severe price war returning to the 0.1 kg segment at 0.8-0.9 yuan is considered low [1][3]. - **Impact of Low Base Year**: The year-on-year price increase is expected to be pronounced due to the relatively low base from the previous year. For instance, a 1 cent increase in pricing could correspond to an annual performance increase of 260 million yuan for YTO Express [4]. - **E-commerce Delivery Segmentation**: There is a notable segmentation in e-commerce delivery, with the top two companies expected to see a growth rate in parcel volume that outpaces the industry by approximately 5 percentage points in January and February [4][7]. - **Cost and Cash Flow Implications**: The differentiation in parcel volume is likely to impact cost structures and cash flows, accelerating the competitive capabilities of different brands [5]. Additional Important Content - **End-User Rights Protection**: The standardization of end-user rights protection, represented by social security measures, is expected to be a long-term trend. The compliance costs may be passed down to the downstream market, potentially stabilizing prices. Previous estimates suggest that the incremental cost of social security could be around 3-4 cents, which would significantly affect the net profit margins of major express companies [6]. - **Investment Recommendations**: The continuation of anti-involution policies is expected to lead to better-than-expected year-on-year performance in off-peak pricing. The differentiation in parcel volume growth, with the top two companies leading, is seen as a potential signal for market optimization. Recommendations include YTO Express, Zhongtong Express, and Shentong Express [7].

格隆汇2月27日丨中通快递-W(02057.HK)宣布，董事会将于2026年3月17日(星期二)(北京时间)举行董事 会会议，以(其中包括)批准(i)公司截至2025年12月31日止第四季度的未经审计财务业绩及其发布；(ii)公 司截至2025年12月31日止财政年度未经审计的全年业绩及其发布；及(iii)宣派及支付股息(如有)。 ...

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對其準確性 或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不會就本公告全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴 該等內容而引致的任何損失承擔任何責任。 根據不同投票權架構，我們的股本包括A類普通股及B類普通股。對於需要股東投票的所有事 項，A類普通股持有人每股可投1票，而B類普通股持有人則每股可投10票。股東及有意投資者 務請留意投資不同投票權架構公司的潛在風險。我們的美國存託股（每股美國存託股代表一股A 類普通股）於美國紐約證券交易所上市，代碼為ZTO。 ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司 （於開曼群島註冊成立以不同投票權控制的有限責任公司） （股份代號：2057） 董事會會議召開日期 中通快遞（開曼）有限公司（「本公司」）董事會（「董事會」）謹此宣佈，董事會將於 2026年3月17日（星期二）（北京時間）舉行董事會會議，以（其中包括）批准(i)本公 司截至2025年12月31日止第四季度的未經審計財務業績及其發佈；(ii)本公司截 至2025年12月31日止財政年度未經審計的全年業績及其發佈；及(iii)宣派 ...