药明康德（603259）：在手订单增长超预期，整体业务延续恢复态势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative performance increase of over 15% against the benchmark index in the next 6 to 12 months [3][13]. Core Insights - The company has shown a gradual recovery in its business operations, with a significant increase in backlog orders, which are expected to drive revenue growth of 10%-15% in 2025. The TIDES business continues to perform strongly, contributing to overall revenue stability [5]. - In 2024, the company reported a slight decline in revenue to 39.24 billion yuan, down 2.73% year-on-year, but excluding COVID-19 related projects, revenue increased by 5.20%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.63% year-on-year [5]. - The company’s gross margin for 2024 was 41.48%, with a net profit margin of 24.38%, indicating stable profitability despite slight revenue declines [5]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 42.33 billion, 48.38 billion, and 57.11 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 7.86%, 14.29%, and 18.05% respectively [5][12]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 11.16 billion, 13.30 billion, and 16.01 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with growth rates of 18.10%, 19.14%, and 20.43% respectively [5][12]. - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to decrease from 21.39 in 2025 to 12.62 by 2027, indicating an improving valuation over time [5][12]. Business Segments Performance - The TIDES business segment achieved a revenue of 5.80 billion yuan in 2024, marking a robust growth of 70.1% year-on-year, with backlog orders increasing by 103.9% [5]. - The chemical business segment reported a revenue of 29.05 billion yuan, with a growth rate of approximately 11.2% when excluding COVID-19 related revenues [5]. - The testing business segment saw a revenue of 5.67 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 4.8%, while the clinical CRO and SMO services grew by 2.8% [5]. Order Backlog - The company’s order backlog reached 49.31 billion yuan, representing a significant increase of 47.0% year-on-year, indicating strong future revenue potential [5]. Conclusion - The company's integrated, end-to-end strategy is expected to solidify its competitive advantages and drive long-term growth, justifying the "Buy" rating [5].