腾讯控股（00700）：借AI东风，腾讯能否重回700？

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price raised to 700 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 30% from the current price of 540 HKD [4][7]. Core Insights - The company reported a 4Q24 revenue of 172.5 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 11%, surpassing market expectations by 2.3%. The gross margin improved to 52.6%, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, with adjusted net profit rising by 30% to 55.3 billion RMB [2][4]. - The domestic gaming segment showed strong performance with a 23% year-on-year revenue growth to 33.2 billion RMB in 4Q24, driven by a low base from the previous year and healthy performance of flagship games [3]. - The company is increasing its investment in AI, with capital expenditures in 4Q24 reaching 39 billion RMB, and plans to continue this trend into 2025, which is expected to account for a low double-digit percentage of revenue [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 608.9 billion RMB in FY23 to 724.4 billion RMB in FY25E, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.8% [6]. - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from 157.6 billion RMB in FY23 to 238.3 billion RMB in FY25E, indicating a strong growth trajectory [6]. - The adjusted net profit margin is forecasted to improve from 25.9% in FY23 to 32.9% in FY26E, showcasing enhanced profitability [6]. Market Expectations - The report highlights that the company’s stock price has a 52-week range of 282.4 to 547 HKD, with a current market capitalization of approximately 4.77 trillion HKD [7]. - The average daily trading volume over the past three months is noted to be 17.32 billion HKD, indicating robust market activity [7].