PING AN OF CHINA(601318) 国联民生证券·2025-03-20 11:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 126.61 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. The net value of new business (NBV) reached 28.53 billion yuan, up 25.6% year-on-year. The company has adjusted its actuarial assumptions, lowering the investment return rate from 4.5% to 4.0% and the risk discount rate from 9.5% to 8.5%/7.5% [4][13][14] - The company continues to emphasize shareholder returns, proposing a dividend of 2.55 yuan per share for 2024, which is a 5% increase year-on-year [15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1266.07 billion yuan, with a breakdown of profits from various segments: life and health insurance (930 billion yuan, +28%), property insurance (150 billion yuan, +68%), banking (258 billion yuan, -4%), asset management (-119 billion yuan, loss narrowed), and financial empowerment (129 billion yuan, +528%) [14] - The operating profit for 2024 was 1218.62 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.1% increase year-on-year [14] New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV for 2024 was 285.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.6%. The first-year premium used for calculating NBV was 1540.26 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [15] - The NBV margin improved to 22.7%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [15] Actuarial Assumptions and EV Growth - The company's actuarial assumptions adjustments led to a decrease in the expected value (EV) growth, with the EV for life and health insurance at 8350.93 billion yuan by the end of 2024, down 13.1% due to these adjustments [15] - The company’s EV based on 2023 assumptions was 9606.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the beginning of the year [15] Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend of 2.55 yuan per share for 2024 indicates a commitment to shareholder returns, with a payout ratio of 37.9% of the operating profit [15] Future Projections - The company forecasts insurance business revenues of 575.68 billion yuan, 600.48 billion yuan, and 628.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.6% [17] - Projected net profits for the same years are 141.39 billion yuan, 164.21 billion yuan, and 193.67 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.7%, 16.1%, and 17.9% respectively [17]