中国平安2024年报点评：下调EV假设提高可信度，资负两端表现符合预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Ping An Insurance (601318.SH) is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the asset side is driving high growth in performance, with the New Business Value (NBV) growth exceeding expectations. The NBV for 2024 is projected at 40 billion CNY under new assumptions, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.8% [1] - The report also notes a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 126.61 billion CNY in 2024, which is a 47.8% year-on-year growth [1] - The report emphasizes the company's robust performance on the liability side and the effectiveness of its comprehensive financial strategy, leading to a sustained "Buy" rating [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company expects a total net profit of 126.61 billion CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 47.8%. The operating profit attributable to shareholders is projected at 121.86 billion CNY, reflecting a 9.1% increase [1] - The report forecasts the NBV growth rates for 2025 and 2026 at 5.0% and 8.6%, respectively, with a new projection for 2027 at 10.2% [1] Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics indicating that the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is expected to be 7.06, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratio is projected at 0.9 [4] - The expected dividend per share (DPS) for 2024 is 2.55 CNY, representing a 5% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 37.9% [1] Business Strategy - The report discusses the company's strategic focus on enhancing individual insurance channels, with a projected 62.7% year-on-year increase in NBV for 2024 [2] - The company is also expanding its community grid and other channels, achieving a nearly 300% year-on-year increase in NBV, with a significant presence established in 93 cities [2]