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牧原股份(002714):2024年报点评报告:业绩高增,养殖成本持续优化

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][10] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 17.88 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from loss to profit [4][6] - The company sold 71.60 million pigs in 2024, including 65.48 million market pigs, 5.66 million piglets, and 0.465 million breeding pigs [6] - The company has optimized its breeding costs, with the total cost of pig farming reduced to approximately 13 yuan/kg by the end of 2024, and the average annual cost around 14 yuan/kg [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.72 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 3.08 billion yuan, highlighting its investment value [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 137.95 billion yuan and a net profit of 17.88 billion yuan, with significant growth in both metrics [4][6] - The company has a breeding capacity of approximately 81 million pigs per year and has established 10 slaughterhouses with a capacity of 29 million pigs per year [6] Cost Management - The company has seen continuous optimization in breeding costs, with production indicators improving, including a PSY (Pigs Sold per Sow per Year) above 29 and a survival rate close to 86% [6] - The average daily weight gain for fattening pigs is around 800 grams, and the feed-to-meat ratio is approximately 2.8 [6] Dividend Policy - The company announced a total dividend of 7.58 billion yuan for 2024, reflecting its strong financial performance and commitment to returning value to shareholders [6] Earnings Forecast - The company is expected to generate revenues of 129.60 billion yuan, 133.01 billion yuan, and 158.85 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of 16.61 billion yuan, 16.36 billion yuan, and 27.65 billion yuan for the same years [8][10]