CITIC Steel(000708) 光大证券·2025-03-20 12:44Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 109.20 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 4.22% year-on-year, with a net profit of 5.13 billion yuan, down 10.41% year-on-year [1] - The company is actively adjusting its product mix, with energy steel sales reaching a historical high and significant growth in automotive and new energy vehicle steel sales [2][3] - The company is making positive progress in its overseas expansion strategy, focusing on a full industry chain layout internationally [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 109.20 billion yuan, a decline of 4.22% from the previous year, and a net profit of 5.13 billion yuan, down 10.41% year-on-year [1] - The fourth quarter revenue was 25.70 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.90% year-on-year, but a net profit of 1.29 billion yuan showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 16.09% [1] - The average selling price of steel per ton was 5,781 yuan, down 4.22% year-on-year, with a gross profit per ton of 743 yuan, down 6.35% year-on-year [1] Product Mix and Sales - The company has adjusted its product structure, with sales by application in 2024 as follows: automotive (28%), energy (34%), machinery (19%), bearings (10%), high-end special materials (2%), and others (7%) [2] - Sales of bearing steel increased by 6% year-on-year, and energy steel sales reached a historical high [2] - The company’s "two high and one special" product sales grew by 23% year-on-year, with 738 million tons sold [2] Overseas Expansion - The company has been actively planning its overseas layout, focusing on over 20 steel projects in Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Mexico, and Europe, as well as resource projects in South America and Australia [3] - The international strategy emphasizes a "resource + main business + distribution" approach, with a focus on mergers and acquisitions [3] Profit Forecast - Due to a decline in gross profit per ton, the company’s net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 5.59 billion yuan and 6.24 billion yuan, respectively [3] - A new forecast for 2027 projects a net profit of 6.83 billion yuan, with expectations for improved profitability as the product structure continues to optimize [3]