CMSK(001979) 长江证券·2025-03-20 13:12Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - The company is projected to achieve operating revenue of 178.9 billion yuan in 2024, representing a 2.3% increase, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decline by 36.1% to 4.04 billion yuan. The net profit excluding non-recurring items is forecasted to be 2.45 billion yuan, down 57.3% [2][4]. - The decline in net profit is primarily attributed to increased impairment losses and a decrease in gross profit margin. Despite facing downward pressure on revenue in 2025, the overall performance outlook remains stable [2][9]. - The company maintains its position as the fifth largest in the industry in terms of sales scale, with a sales revenue of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.3% year-on-year. The sales performance in the fourth quarter showed a positive growth of 10.1% year-on-year [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 178.9 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 14.6%, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year. The impairment losses increased by 3.62 billion yuan to 6.03 billion yuan, with credit impairment and asset impairment accounting for 1.55 billion yuan and 4.48 billion yuan, respectively [9][10]. - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of over 40%, with cash dividends of 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, corresponding to a payout ratio of 43% [9]. Market Position and Strategy - The company’s land acquisition amount in 2024 was 48.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.1% year-on-year, with a land acquisition to sales ratio of 22%. The quality of land acquired remains high, with 90% of investments concentrated in "core 10 cities" and 59% in first-tier cities [9]. - The average financing cost at the end of 2024 was 2.99%, a decrease of 48 basis points from the previous year, indicating a strong credit advantage [9]. Future Outlook - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.2 billion yuan, 4.5 billion yuan, and 4.9 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 20.8X, 19.4X, and 17.7X. The current valuation does not reflect the long-term value, suggesting significant upside potential [9].