Muyuan Foods (SZ:002714) Southwest Securities·2025-03-21 13:53Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 46.15 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 38.26 CNY [1][10]. Core Views - The company has achieved significant growth in its pig farming business, with both volume and price increasing, alongside effective cost control measures leading to a turnaround in profitability [7][8]. - The report highlights a robust expansion in pig production capacity and a continuous reduction in breeding costs, aiming for an average cost of 12 CNY/kg by 2025 [7][8]. - The company is strategically advancing its slaughtering business, which has shown improved profitability, achieving monthly profits by the end of 2024 [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 137,947 million CNY, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 17,881 million CNY, marking a significant recovery from a loss of 42,630 million CNY in the previous year [7][8]. - The company sold 71.6 million pigs in 2024, a 12.20% increase from the previous year, with a notable rise in average selling prices [7][8]. - The complete cost of pig farming decreased to 14 CNY/kg in 2024, with further reductions expected in early 2025 [7][8]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for EPS is 3.55 CNY for 2025, 4.47 CNY for 2026, and 5.82 CNY for 2027, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 11, 9, and 7 [2][10]. - The report anticipates a revenue growth rate of 6.01% in 2025, followed by 9.97% in 2026 and 2027 [2][8]. Business Segmentation - The pig farming segment is expected to maintain a steady growth rate, with projected sales volume increases of 20% in 2025, followed by 7% in the subsequent years [8]. - The slaughtering and meat processing segment is also expected to grow, with revenue forecasted to increase by 20% in 2025 [8]. Valuation Comparison - The company is compared with industry peers, showing a slightly higher PE ratio than the industry average, reflecting its position as a market leader with potential for high-quality growth [10].