Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huazhu Group-S (01179.HK) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to maintain a strong opening pace in 2025, with a focus on asset-light structural adjustments [1] - The Q4 revenue exceeded guidance, with a year-on-year increase of 7.8%, reaching 6.023 billion yuan [8] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 500 million USD for 2024, with a payout ratio exceeding 100% [8] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21.882 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 57.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is expected to be 4.085 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 324.33% [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2023 is estimated at 1.27 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 20.69 [1] Business Expansion and Guidance - As of Q4 2024, the number of stores in mainland China reached 11,025, a year-on-year increase of 19% [8] - The company plans to open 2,300 new stores in 2025 while closing 600, resulting in a net increase of 1,700 stores [8] - The revenue growth guidance for Q1 2024 is set at 0-4%, with expectations for gradual improvement in RevPAR [8] Profitability Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is 3.806 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 23.20% [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 22, 19, and 17 respectively [1] - The report anticipates a continuous improvement in the market landscape, supported by the company's brand, traffic, and technology [8]
华住集团-S：2024年业绩公告点评：2025年保持高速开店及轻资产结构调整策略-20250321