COSCO SHIP HOLD(601919) 国金证券·2025-03-23 14:34Investment Rating - The report has downgraded the investment rating to "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 233.86 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 33.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 49.1 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 105.8% [4] - The container shipping market experienced moderate growth in cargo volume, with the CCFI composite index averaging 1551 points in 2024, up 65.4% year-on-year [4] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 1.03 RMB per share, representing approximately 50% of its net profit for 2024, resulting in a dividend yield of 11% [5] - The fleet structure is being optimized to adapt to emerging market trade developments, with a total capacity of 3.319 million TEU by the end of 2024, an increase of 9.1% from the beginning of the year [5] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - The company forecasts operating revenue for 2023 at 175.45 billion RMB, with a projected decline of 55.14% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 23.86 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a decrease of 78.23% [3] - The diluted earnings per share for 2023 is estimated at 1.485 RMB [3] Market Analysis - The container shipping business saw a cargo volume of 25.939 million TEU in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.1% [4] - The average revenue per container for foreign trade routes was estimated at 1375 USD/TEU, up 30% year-on-year [4] Dividend and Share Buyback - The company has initiated a share buyback program, planning to repurchase between 50 million to 100 million shares at a price not exceeding 20 RMB per share [5] - The company has been included in multiple dividend indices, reflecting its sustainable return capability [5] Profit Forecast Adjustments - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 20 billion RMB and 14.1 billion RMB, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 10.5 billion RMB [5]