高盛：中国经济一周-市场回调 1%-2%；公布促消费举措；1 - 2 月经济活动数据小幅超预期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the MSCI China index with a target price of 85, suggesting a potential upside of 11% [35] - The CSI300 index has a target price of 4,700, indicating a potential upside of 20% [35] Core Insights - The State Council has introduced measures to boost consumption, which may positively impact economic activity [1] - Recent activity data for January-February showed industrial production growth of 5.9%, fixed asset investment growth of 4.1%, and retail sales growth of 4.0%, all year-on-year [1] - Earnings for 4Q24 have shown a significant increase, with 33% of the China/MXCN universe reporting a 25% year-on-year rise in earnings [11] - The report highlights that the offshore tech sector has seen EPS upgrades due to AI optimism, while earnings surprises have been less favorable historically [14] Summary by Sections Performance - Utilities and Value sectors outperformed, while Real Estate and Growth sectors lagged [8] - MXCN/CSI300 forward P/E ratios are 11.5x and 13.0x respectively, with expected EPS growth of 8% for 2025 and 14% for 2026 for MXCN [9] Flows - Southbound flows reached US$51 billion year-to-date, indicating strong foreign interest in Chinese equities [3] Policies and News - The State Council has unveiled a new food safety regulatory framework across the full supply chain, which may impact related sectors positively [4] Earnings and Valuations - The report notes that the consensus EPS growth estimates for 2025/26 are 8%/14% for MXCN and 16%/12% for CSI300, with significant upward revisions in Information Technology and Real Estate sectors [9][37] Macro Indicators - The report provides macroeconomic forecasts, projecting China's real GDP growth at 5.0% for 2024 and 4.5% for 2025, with industrial production growth expected to be 5.8% in 2024 [36][38]