Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 7.01 [7][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 852 million for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.4%, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 176 million, up 62.7% year-on-year. Both revenue and profit align with the performance forecast [1][2]. - The company plans to restart dividend payments in 2024, with an expected gradual increase in the dividend payout ratio over the next three years, targeting approximately 25% in 2024 [1]. - The company is actively seizing opportunities in the Shenzhen market due to improved regional dynamics, continuously expanding its market share [2][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 852 million, a 49.4% increase year-on-year, and an adjusted net profit of RMB 176 million, a 62.7% increase year-on-year. The gross profit and adjusted net profit for 2024 were RMB 333 million and RMB 176 million, respectively, exceeding pre-"double reduction" levels [1][2]. - The company’s quality education revenue reached RMB 767 million, up 47.79% year-on-year, while tutoring course revenue grew 65.22% to RMB 86 million, driven mainly by an increase in class hours [2]. Market Expansion - The company has resumed its expansion in the Guangzhou market, opening nine new campuses by the end of 2024, with overall enrollment exceeding expectations. The focus will be on revenue and market share growth in the coming two to three years [3][4]. - The company plans to enhance its teaching staff by increasing the proportion of teachers with top-tier academic qualifications to over 85% and will strengthen its middle-tier capabilities to support business expansion [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted slightly, with expected adjusted net profits of RMB 244 million, RMB 329 million, and RMB 424 million, reflecting increases of 5% and 7% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [5][12]. - The target price of HKD 7.01 is based on a 15x PE ratio for 2025, considering the company's relatively lower liquidity compared to comparable companies listed in the US and A-shares [5][12].
思考乐教育：业绩弹性兑现，成长路径清晰-20250324