中国神华：业绩稳健、高分红率彰显投资价值-20250324

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][19] Core Views - The company reported a stable performance with a high dividend yield, showcasing its investment value. In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 338.38 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.67 billion yuan, down 1.7% [1][19] - The decline in coal prices has impacted profitability, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 [5][19] Summary by Sections Coal Business - The company produced 327 million tons of commodity coal in 2024, an increase of 0.8% year-on-year, with sales volume reaching 459 million tons, up 2.1% year-on-year. The average selling price for self-produced coal was 527 yuan per ton, down 21 yuan per ton year-on-year [2][13] - The coal segment's gross margin was 30%, a decline of 2 percentage points year-on-year due to falling coal prices [2][13] Power Business - The company generated and sold 223.21 billion and 210.28 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2024, respectively, both up by 5.2% and 5.3% year-on-year. The average selling price of electricity was 403 yuan per megawatt-hour, down 2.7% year-on-year [3][15] - The gross margin for the power segment was 16.3%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year [3][16] Transportation Business - Revenue from the railway, port, and shipping segments was 43.1 billion, 6.8 billion, and 5 billion yuan, respectively, showing growth of 0.4%, 1.4%, and 3.3% year-on-year [4][16] - The overall operation remained stable, with significant project progress in railway expansions and port approvals [4][16] Dividend and Financial Metrics - The company distributed a cash dividend of 2.26 yuan per share in 2024, representing 76.5% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, an increase of 1.3 percentage points from 2023 [4][17] - The estimated net profit for 2025-2027 is projected to be 53.6 billion, 54.4 billion, and 55.3 billion yuan, respectively, with earnings per share of 2.70, 2.74, and 2.78 yuan [5][19]