GEELY AUTO(00175) 东吴证券·2025-03-24 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for Geely Automobile is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The Q4 performance of Geely Automobile met expectations, with total revenue of 72.51 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 29.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.579 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 45.4% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 45.8% [8] - The company aims to achieve a sales target of 2.71 million vehicles in 2025, with 1.5 million of those being new energy vehicles. The company is actively promoting its "Smart Geely 2025" strategy [8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4, Geely's total sales reached 687,000 units, with year-on-year growth of 30.3% and quarter-on-quarter growth of 28.6%. The average selling price for Geely and Zeekr vehicles was 121,000 yuan, showing a slight decrease [8] - The gross margin for Q4 was 17.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved profitability from high-margin oil vehicles and enhanced profitability from new energy products [8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for total revenue is as follows: - 2023: 179.846 billion yuan - 2024: 240.194 billion yuan (33.56% YoY) - 2025: 344.279 billion yuan (43.33% YoY) - 2026: 397.884 billion yuan (15.57% YoY) - 2027: 475.326 billion yuan (19.46% YoY) [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be: - 2023: 5.308 billion yuan - 2024: 16.632 billion yuan (213.32% YoY) - 2025: 14.153 billion yuan (-14.91% YoY) - 2026: 19.599 billion yuan (38.48% YoY) - 2027: 27.060 billion yuan (38.07% YoY) [1] Valuation Metrics - The latest diluted EPS is projected as follows: - 2023: 0.53 yuan - 2024: 1.65 yuan - 2025: 1.40 yuan - 2026: 1.95 yuan - 2027: 2.69 yuan [1] - The P/E ratios are projected as follows: - 2024: 9.48 - 2025: 11.14 - 2026: 8.05 - 2027: 5.83 [1]