高盛：全球科技- 服务器市场规模更新 -下调人工智能训练服务器前景预期

Investment Rating - The report downgrades Quanta from Buy to Neutral with a new 12-month target price of NT $293, reflecting a 7% to 21% reduction in target prices for Taiwan ODM/cooling supply chain companies [1]. Core Insights - The forecast for rack-level AI server volumes has been revised down to 19k and 57k for 2025 and 2026, respectively, from previous estimates of 31k and 66k, due to product transitions and demand uncertainties [1]. - The demand for high-power AI servers is expected to remain stable, with unit estimates revised to 423k for both 2025 and 2026, indicating that some customers prefer baseboard solutions for design flexibility [2]. - The overall outlook for AI inferencing and general servers remains positive, driven by AI technology applications and a recovery in the replacement cycle [2]. Server Market Outlook - The global server market is projected to grow significantly, with revenues expected to reach US$ 231 billion, US $277 billion, and US$ 376 billion in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 64%, 20%, and 36% [10]. - AI training server revenues are anticipated to grow at 30% and 63% year-on-year, reaching US $160 billion and US$ 260 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively [11][30]. - General server volumes are expected to increase by 6% and 4% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, supported by a recovery in replacement cycles and new CPU platform introductions [15]. Customer Spending Insights - Leading US cloud service providers are forecasted to increase their capital expenditure budgets by 41% and 15% year-on-year in 2025 and 2026, respectively [3][20]. - Chinese cloud platforms are expected to raise their capital expenditure by 26% in 2025, stabilizing to a 4% increase in 2026 [3][26].