中国神华：年度业绩稳健，分红率提升彰显投资价值-20250325

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's annual performance is stable, and the increase in dividend payout ratio highlights its investment value [5] - The company has completed the acquisition of Hanjin Energy, which is expected to accelerate the injection of group assets [8] - The company aims to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% from 2025 to 2027, reflecting its long-term investment value [8] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.67 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year [8] - The company’s coal production and sales volume for 2024 were 327 million tons and 459 million tons, respectively, with year-on-year growth of 0.8% and 2.1% [8] - The average selling price of coal was 564 yuan per ton, down 3.4% year-on-year, while the production cost remained stable at 179 yuan per ton [8] - The company’s projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 53.065 billion yuan, 55.037 billion yuan, and 56.626 billion yuan, respectively [8] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 2.67 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.90 [7] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to decline from 14.61% in 2023 to 11.84% in 2025 [7] - The company’s revenue is forecasted to decrease slightly in 2024 to 338.375 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 1.37% [7]