CHINA RAILWAY(SH:601390) Hua Yuan Zheng Quan·2025-03-25 06:53Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for China Railway Group Limited (601390.SH) based on its robust market position in infrastructure and overseas development opportunities [4]. Core Views - China Railway Group is a leading state-owned enterprise in the infrastructure sector, benefiting from fiscal policy support and the deepening of the Belt and Road Initiative. The core business is expected to maintain steady growth, with projected net profits of CNY 31.2 billion, CNY 32.3 billion, and CNY 33.7 billion for 2024-2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 4.6, 4.5, and 4.3 times respectively [4][8]. - The company has a solid order backlog, with an uncompleted contract amount of CNY 6.22 trillion as of mid-2024, reflecting a 5.9% increase from the previous year, providing a stable foundation for future performance [7]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery driven by state-owned enterprise market value management initiatives and the expansion of emerging businesses, particularly in resource development [4][7]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of CNY 1,260.84 billion in 2023, with a projected slight decline to CNY 1,217.31 billion in 2024, followed by a recovery to CNY 1,230.66 billion in 2025 and CNY 1,254.99 billion in 2026 [8][10]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease to CNY 31.21 billion in 2024, before increasing to CNY 32.33 billion in 2025 and CNY 33.65 billion in 2026 [8][10]. Market Position and Strategy - China Railway Group holds a significant market share in railway and urban rail construction, with over two-thirds of the national railway mileage and 90% of electrified railways constructed by the company [7]. - The company is actively expanding into emerging sectors such as water conservancy, clean energy, and mineral resources, with new orders in these areas increasing by 11.3% year-on-year in 2024 [7]. Dividend and Valuation - The company has a strong track record of dividend payments, with a cumulative dividend of CNY 40.76 billion since 2009 and a dividend rate of 15.52% in 2023, translating to a dividend yield of 3.61% [7]. - The report anticipates that ongoing market value management efforts by the state will enhance investor confidence and support valuation recovery [7].