ANTA SPORTS(HK:02020) Changjiang Securities·2025-03-25 09:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - Anta Sports is expected to achieve a revenue of 70.83 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 13.6%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 15.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%. Excluding the gains from the Amer listing and placement, the net profit is expected to be 11.93 billion yuan, reflecting a 16.5% year-on-year growth. Overall, the revenue and performance are in line with expectations, although the operating profit margin (OPM) is slightly lower than anticipated after excluding government subsidies [2][4]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profit Forecast - For 2024, Anta's revenue is forecasted at 70.83 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 14%. The net profit is expected to be 15.6 billion yuan, showing a significant increase of 52%. The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 5.56 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 14.82 [9]. Brand Performance - In 2024, the revenue growth for Anta, FILA, and other brands is expected to be 10.6%, 6.1%, and 53.7%, respectively. The Anta brand is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in top-tier markets, while FILA is undergoing adjustments with a new CEO expected to drive high-quality growth [7]. Margin Analysis - The operating profit margins for Anta and FILA are projected to decline by 1.2 and 2.3 percentage points, respectively, due to increased e-commerce channel contributions and rising product development costs. The overall OPM is expected to be 21.0% for Anta and 25.3% for FILA, with government subsidies contributing positively to performance [7]. Future Outlook - Short-term challenges include pressure on OPM due to high marketing and promotion expenses. However, the long-term growth potential remains strong, particularly with the multi-channel store strategy and FILA's adjustments. The net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 are 13.4 billion, 15.0 billion, and 16.6 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 13%, 11%, and 11% [7][9].