食品饮料行业周报：板块进入业绩验证期，春季糖酒会反馈平淡，品牌之间分化加剧-2025-03-25

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to the food and beverage industry [2] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector is entering a performance verification period, with mixed feedback from the recent Spring Sugar and Wine Fair, highlighting increasing brand differentiation [3][4] - The beverage leaders have shown strong performance, while the snack food sector presents investment opportunities amid industry transformations [7] Market Review - The food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 4.0% last week, ranking 27th among the Shenwan first-level industries. Sub-sectors such as soft drinks and beer performed relatively better, with declines of -0.3% and -1.1% respectively, while other alcoholic beverages and dairy products saw larger declines of -5.2% and -6.4% [4][10] - As of March 21, the valuation (PE-TTM) for the liquor sector was 20.3X, while the overall food and beverage sector stood at 21.2X [4][17] Industry Data - In January-February, the production of liquor (65 degrees, commodity volume) totaled 663,000 kiloliters, down 11.2% year-on-year; beer production was 5.261 million kiloliters, down 4.9%; and wine production was 15,000 kiloliters, down 25.0% [7][25] - The retail sales of consumer goods totaled 83,731 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0%. Notably, the catering revenue grew by 4.3%, and the sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 5.5% [7] - The Spring Sugar and Wine Fair saw a subdued atmosphere, with over 6,600 exhibitors and an exhibition area of 325,000 square meters, indicating a shift in focus towards inventory management and cash flow recovery among liquor businesses [7][25] Company Performance - The leading soft drink company, Dongpeng Beverage, is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 40.6% and a net profit growth of 63.1% in 2024, benefiting from cost advantages and market share gains in the energy drink segment [7] - The snack food sector is witnessing transformations, with major players adapting to changing consumer demands and enhancing their channel strategies [7] - The beer sector is recommended for investment, particularly focusing on Qingdao Beer, which is expected to benefit from a low base effect [7]